UFC Vegas 79: 1 best and worst bet of the night
Another week, another opportunity to hit the sportsbooks for UFC Vegas 79. Following what felt like a free pay-per-view card with Noche UFC, the lines are not nearly as wide for UFC Vegas 79. While those numbers will undoubtedly change as the week goes on, there is at least one spot we can jump on early.
Looking back at the picks for Noche UFC, the worst bet still made sense from a mathematical perspective, despite Rosas Jr. winning in decisive fashion. Even though proposition bets were not available at the time, offering a prop suggestion may be included in the future, as Round 1 was the clear path.
For the best Noche UFC bet, the scorecards were not our friend, in more ways than one. Despite the Mike Bell "10-8" fiasco, the judges were consistent with Valentina Shevchenko winning rounds 1 and 3, as well as Grasso winning rounds 2 and 5.
While round 1 was close, Shevchenko did seem to be pressing the action more and landing more effectively, so giving her the round is understandable. Round 4 is the swing round with Bell and Sal d'Amato giving it to Shevchenko, while Junichiro Kamijo dissented and gave round 4 to Grasso.
Watching round 4 back, it still seemed as though Grasso rebounded from round 3 well as was bringing the momentum to her favor. The 10-8 is a preposterous score for round 5, but it almost makes one wonder if judges do not always right down round scores right away and/or when they note the incorrect score, they correct it with another questionable round instead of scratching out a number like a fifth grader on a math test.
Either way, the train of thought to bet Grasso was the right call and a push or void is not the end of the world.
UFC Vegas 79: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige offers the best bet
The often controversial Bryce Mitchell looks to bounce back from a boatload of personal issues, as well as a loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 282, when he steps into the Octagon against Dan Ige. UFC 282 was only Mitchell's second loss of his career and while his talent is very apparent, Mitchell looked shocked at Topuria's skill level.
Mitchell may run into similar issues at UFC Vegas 79 when he faces Ige in the co-main event. Ige is an absolute madman, having never been finished inside the distance. His only loses are decisions to fighters who are above both he and Mitchell in the featherweight rankings and a fighter by the name of Jung Chan-sung (a.k.a. Chan Sung Jung).
Mitchell has chalked up the loss to Topuria as the result of illness during fight week, which impacted his weight-cut and cardio. Taking that at face value, Mitchell withdrew from a fight with Movsar Evloev scheduled for UFC 288 due to an unspecified back injury, after Evloev agreed to fill in for Jonathan Pearce.
While Mitchell's raw numbers look better on paper, Ige actually sports a better takedown defense and may have the wrestling advantage. Ige currently sits at +160, which will not last, especially if Mitchell looks like he suffered another poor weight-cut.
Best bet: Dan Ige money line (+160)
UFC Vegas 79: Tamires Vidal vs. Montserrat Rendon offers the worst bet
Jacob Malkoun versus Cody Brundage was also in consideration for worst bet of the card, as Malkoun is currently listed at -540, which is ridiculous, even against someone on a three-fight losing streak. Giving that fight felt like the easy way out though. The theme here is always avoid huge favorites or "banana peel" prices as they are often referred.
Instead we will go with Tamires Vidal versus Montserrat Rendon. This has nothing to do with either fighter specifically. It is based on the laundry list of unknowns that come with this fight and its place on the card as the opening fight.
Vidal comes into this fight having won her UFC debut against Ramona Pascual. While making the show and winning your debut are certainly accomplishments, Pascual has not looked anything remotely close to UFC ready, so the win has an asterisk. Vidal's other notable win was in 2021 against Ailin Perez via disqualification.
Even more unknown is the skill level of Rendon, who is coming into this fight undefeated and possessing a size advantage on paper. While undefeated, Rendon has yet to finish an opponent, which is a concern entering your UFC debut.
There are just too many unknowns to support Vidal's current price-tag of -240. However, if you are someone who likes to have action on every fight, the value is on the Rendon side.
Worst bet: Tamires Vidal money line (-240)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. All odds, bout order, and opponents are subject to change.
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