Noche UFC: 1 best and worst bet of the night
The UFC returns home to Las Vegas this week to celebrate Mexican Independence Day with Noche UFC. The card is scheduled to feature at least six fighters representing Mexico, including women's flyweight champion, Alexa Grasso. While there are no proposition bets widely available yet, there are plenty of money lines we can look to attack or avoid.
The basic principle of searching for good and bad bets is to find lines that are underpriced for maximum profits and overpriced to avoid significant losses. For UFC 293, we avoided the Israel Adesanya trap line of -680. Unfortunately, the best bet on Anton Turkalj was less than "pleasurable".
Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko offers the best bet
The reality of this rematch is that we just saw this fight at UFC 285 on March 4, 2023. It was a great fight that may have marked Valentina Shevchenko reaching the apex of success and beginning the decent, while Alexa Grasso has begun her ascent.
It has only been six months six that fight and Grasso will be looking to defend her title to honor her fellow Mexicans and celebrate the country's independence. Many casual fans and bettors will see the success Shevchenko had in the first fight and be quick to run back to the window.
The intangible they will miss is the championship effect. Look at Leon Edwards and his shocking victory over Kamaru Usman, who was still favored in the rematch. Edwards make Usman look career done in the second fight. The sportsbooks are giving us the champion at plus money. Yes, please. May I have some more?
Best bet: Alexa Grasso money line (+140)
In all, the card currently has five fighters that are favored north of -300, which is roughly the maximum price worth paying in a sport where people punch and kick each other with angry intentions. Drake is a good pop culture example of this, where he routinely places large wagers on significant favorites to win a fraction in return. Social media would have you believe Drake bets are even a curse.
For Noche UFC, the largest favorite at time of writing is Dana White's Contender Series alum, Raul Rosas Jr., at -700. There is no debate that Rosas Jr is a phenom for 18 years of age. At that price though, Rosas Jr is implied to win north of 87 percent of time.
The number will likely remain constant at this price, if not continue to increase, which increases Rosas Jr's implied win rate. Fight-ending Injuries happen in this sport regularly. It just happened to Jack Jenkins at UFC 293 as the betting favorite.
The price simply does not justify the chance of injury, the occasional flash KO, the occasional mistake by someone who just became a legal adult, or three judges being on the same page for a decision.
Worst bet: Raul Rosas Jr. money line (-700)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. All odds, bout order, and opponents are subject to change.
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