UFC Paris: 1 best and worst bet of the night
The UFC continues traveling westward this week as it departs Singapore and lands in Paris, France. While the card should feature several familiar French fighters, there are also several French fighters making their promotional debut, and a familiar face from 2016, if the UFC can pull a rabbit from its hat.
There have been several changes to the card this week, which can sometimes spell disaster at the betting window. It also eliminates Taylor Lapilus as a sneaky good bet this weekend.
Lapilus was originally scheduled to face Muin Gafurov, which was a good matchup for Lapilus. He now faces Caolan Loughran, who is less experienced than Gafurov, but likely offers more resistance in the stand-up department.
Lapilus last fought in the UFC in 2016, with a record of three wins and one loss. Since then, Lapilus has gone on to win seven of his last eight fights at smaller promotions. He was less than a -200 favorite and would have made a good multi-unit bet against Gafurov, but the same price tag against Loughran is not as appealing.
UFC Paris: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac is the best bet
The main event features a clash between former heavyweight champion and current No. 2 contender, Ciryl Gane, and No. 7 Serghei Spivac. While this fight is scheduled for five five-minute rounds, it is unlikely all five will be needed, with two outcomes being the most likely scenarios.
The simplest way to attack this fight is to take Spivac on the money line, which is currently priced at +130, as he arguably has more paths to victory than Gane. The cleaner striking technique and volume is undoubtedly with Gane, but the power is arguably equal.
There is no doubt Gane is constantly working on his ground game, but as the Jon Jones fight showed, it is an area to be exploited. Spivac is no stranger to the ground, averaging more than five takedowns per 15 minutes and seven wins by submission on his record. This presents his most likely path to victory and a better price tag of +400, if you are so inclined.
If you do not have a strong read on who has the edge, under 3.5 rounds is a viable option at -280, followed up by under 2.5 rounds at -160.
Best bet: Serghei Spivac money line (+130)
UFC Paris: Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos is the worst bet
Former LFA bantamweight champion, Jacqueline Cavalcanti, will be making her UFC debut this week against Zarah Fairn dos Santos in what was originally a bantamweight scrap that has turned into a catchweight bout. Cavalcanti recently won the LFA bantamweight title against Canadian prospect, Melissa Croden, but vacated to pursue her UFC debut.
While Cavalcanti is currently listed as a clear favorite at -400, there are several reasons to be concerned. At the most basic level, Cavalcanti is only six fights into her career and making her debut for the largest promotion on the planet. That is stressful for most fighters.
To this point in her young career, her level of opposition has been mixed. While wins against Croden and fellow UFC debutant, Nora Cornolle, are a good start to a career, they are not the same level of opposition as Fairn.
Fairn typically fights at featherweight and cutting weight is not likely to be easier at 39 years-of-age. If she is able to successfully make the weight-cut this week, which is five pounds less now, there may be a strength discrepancy. Fairn also strikes at a reasonable rate per 15 minutes.
The biggest knock on Fairn is her lack of success in the UFC, notching zero wins inside the Octagon. For perspective, her losses have come against former featherweight title challengers, Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer, as well as Josiane Nunes, who has quietly gone undefeated in her three UFC appearances.
Fairn has also not been particularly active, which may be due in part to the pandemic. Her last performance against Nunes was arguably her best though and it gives a lot of pause to Cavalcanti's price tag.
Worst bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti money line (-400)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. All odds, bout order, and opponents are subject to change.
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