UFC 293: 1 best and worst bet of the night
The UFC makes the final stop in its recent run of international events this week in Sydney, Australia for UFC 293. The card features heavy representation from the region in general, as well as five fighters from City Kickboxing, training headquarters for the middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya.
While the card has promised to be a non-stop action event, it is noticeably missing fights from the women's divisions. Casey O'Neill was originally scheduled to fight Viviane Araujo on Sept. 9 but was forced to withdraw due to a medical issue that required surgery.
UFC 293: Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj is the best bet
If either of these fighters had a different opponent, that would be the side to go with on this one. As it stands though, we get a light heavyweight bout between a fighter who struggles outside of the bottom of the division and a Dana White's Contender Series prospect who has yet to realize success in the UFC.
There is a silver lining, as one fighter has been facing a significantly higher level of opponent, even in defeat. This provides some much needed insight into early money line movements.
The money line in this fight opened with Pedro as the favorite, which disappeared rather quickly. Turkalj is now the slight favorite at -130 and rightfully so. Neither fighter, on paper, throws significant strikes at a high volume. However, Turkalj was thrown into the deep end in his first two fights against Jailton Almeida and Vitor Petrino.
Pedro on the other hand has only three wins in the last five years; all three came against opponents who were in the bottom of the division at the time and are no longer with the promotion. Pedro may have a slight edge in the grappling department, sporting five wins by submission on his record. Turkalj is still young in his MMA career and could make a mistake that leads to a submission.
When fight cards hand you lemons, you squeeze them for all of the juice they are worth.
Best bet: Anton Turkalj money line (-130)
UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland is the worst bet to make
This may be the strangest middleweight title fight in history; yet, it is hard to argue that it was not the most intriguing matchup available with Dricus Du Plessis electing to not partake in a quick turnaround.
The exchange between Adesanya and Du Plessis at UFC 290 was difficult to watch, as it felt like a forced attempt to gain hype in the moment without any forethought. With that narrative on the shelf for now, the most cringe-worthy opponent available was undoubtedly Strickland.
Strickland makes a habit, whether intentionally or unintentionally, of being as provocative as he can be, to literally everyone. Even his best friend and likely corner-man, Chris Curtis, has exchanged blows with him over his shenanigans.
What makes this fight interesting from an analytical perspective is that Strickland does not stop coming forward, ever. That will most likely lend itself to five rounds of Adesanya target practice, but it also means there is twenty-five minutes for Strickland to land the perfect shot or for the champ to misstep along the outside of the Octagon and blow out his knee.
Stranger things happen in the world of MMA everyday.
If that was not enough for you to stay away from the Adesanya money line, the striking numbers between the two are not nearly as far apart as one might think. Strickland actually lands more significant strikes per minute than Adesanya and while Strickland absorbs more strikes per minute, it is with a better defensive rate than Adesanya.
Worst bet: Israel Adesanya money line (-680)
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. All odds, bout order, and opponents are subject to change.
Next. 5 of the best fighters from Australia and New Zealand. dark