TUF 31 Episode 4: Brad Katona vs. Carlos Vera preview and prediction
Trevor Wells versus Timur Valiev was a lot more competitive than people assumed. Valiev continues to show some question marks late in fights and Wells almost took advantage. While Conor McGregor was pushing for the third round, Wells only took over in the second round with a few minutes left. It did not seem like he did enough to swing the second round to push for a third.
With Valiev scoring another win for Team Chandler, the veterans are now 4-0 with Brad Katona looking to continue the trend against Carlos Vera. Katona has a solid resume both in the UFC and abroad, but Vera brings slick grappling with a strong striking background. Vera was most recently headlining cards for Fury FC before getting the call for TUF.
Carlos Vera may have the largest hill to climb against Brad Katona
Of all the pairings so far, Vera may have the worst draw. He is a 12-3 fighter who will be turning 36 in November. His experience is a little all over the place, but he has been fighting the right competition after a lengthy amateur career.
Katona is just 31 and has already won TUF. One of his biggest claims to fame will be finishing Bryce Mitchell in the second round of his previous season. On top of that, both of his losses were in the UFC, with one coming at the hands of Merab Dvalishvili. Since his second UFC loss to Hunter Azure, Katona has been with BRAVE FC, going 4-0 en route to the BRAVE FC bantamweight title.
Stylistically, this is a tough matchup for Vera. Unless he brings some serious power early in the fight, his only other opportunity could be to sneak in a submission from the ground. His taekwondo stance with lengthy striking could be his ticket to a big upset, but Katona's grinding, in-your-face style could make him uncomfortable if he can't maintain striking distance. it's hard to see Katona losing a decision and the ground-and-pound leading to a finish is always a possibility.
Even with the puncher's or grappler's chance for Vera, overcoming the high-pressure gameplan of Katona could be far too difficult, especially with his skill set and experience. Barring an Israel Adesanya-like performance on the feet from Vera, Katona is looking like a sneaky candidate to win the whole tournament.
Prediction: Brad Katona via second round submission
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The Ultimate Fighter 31 airs exclusively on Tuesdays on ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT. Follow along with FanSided MMA for all your live results and highlights.