Predicting the stud & dud for UFC 306

On Sept. 14, the UFC is hosting a massive show at the Sphere, in Las Vegas, for UFC 306. This show will honor Mexican Independence Day as it will host many Mexican fighters and have special effects throughout the night celebrating the fighting culture of Mexico. The main event will be a bantamweight title fight between Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili while the co-main event is a women's flyweight title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso and Shevchenko will make history as they will fight in the first UFC women's trilogy, as they are currently 1-0-1 in their rivalry. While winners and losers will appear on the night of UFC 306, discussed below will be who will most likely impress and disappoint on fight night.

UFC 306 stud: Ronaldo Rodríguez

Ronaldo Rodríguez is a new, hot prospect in the flyweight division who made his UFC debut in early 2024 at a UFC fight night event in Mexico City. He struggled a bit as he was outwrestled against Denys Bondar. After escaping an ankle lock, Rodríguez found a rear-naked choke to win his UFC debut in the final seconds of the second round. While that debut was on the prelims, Rodríguez's next fight will be on the main card of a massive PPV. As he takes on Ode' Osbourne at UFC 306, he has a major opportunity to put on a better performance and increase his recognition among a larger audience.

Rodríguez is 25 years old and has been competing since 2017. His major start was in different Mexican MMA organizations until he got a shot at Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020. Though he ended up losing to Jerome Rivera by decision, he has been on a six-fight winning streak since then. Rodríguez earned his second UFC shot by competing mostly at the Lux Fight League, an MMA organization in Mexico City, as he won five fights, with two knockouts and one submission. He is 16-2, with seven knockouts and five submissions, as leaving fights to the judges is not his preference.

This is a good matchup for Rodríguez to shine well in, as Osbourne is not that good in the places he is. Rodríguez's striking and wrestling are better as he has better momentum, while Osbourne is coming off two finishing losses in an inconsistent career. Rodríguez is also more durable as he has only lost by decision in his career as he is known for taking hard punches well. His fight is the main card opener, which can make this a bigger moment for him if he opens the PPV with a bang. There should be no doubt that Rodríguez takes great advantage of his current opportunity to perform well and be the stud of UFC 306.

UFC 306 dud: Merab Dvalishvili

O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili is a high-level fight as both fighters are in their prime, on winning streaks and fighting for gold in a major arena. Both fighters have a good chance to win their fight if they can use their fight styles successfully to nullify the other. It seems O'Malley would be the favorite to nullify Dvalishvili's fight style, as he thrives against hittable opponents. O'Malley's recent fights have each raised his stock, from his war with Petr Yan to his knockout of Aljimain Sterling, and masterclass over Marlon Vera. It seems O'Malley may be in for another stock-raising performance against another serious, elite contender.

Dvalishvili is a serious wrestler with good credentials such as judo, sambo, and Georgian wrestling. He is a pressure-forward, cardio machine who can shoot unlimited takedowns without ever getting tired. His takedown threat can make other fighters hesitant to strike with him, as they let him outstrike them greatly most of the time. Dvalishvili is 17-4 as he is currently on a 10-fight winning streak that consists of major names such as Marlon Moraes, José Aldo, Yan, and Henry Cejudo. He has only four career losses, as three were by decision and one was by a controversial, technical submission in April 2018. Though he does not finish fights as much, his fight style is still dominant and scary for many fighters as he wins many clear, unanimous decisions.

Dvalishvili may have good skills and a funny personality, but fight night may end up being a bad night for him. Since he is hittable, O'Malley, a more elite striker than Dvalishvili's past opponents, has a great chance to take advantage of that to give Dvalishvili his first knockout loss. Dvalishvili's recent, stitched-up cut, during fight camp, and alleged, staph infection do not make his chances look good for this fight. Dana White was not happy with Dvalishvili getting a cut on his eyebrow, as he said fighters should not be that stupid. With Mr. White not being happy with that incident, do not be surprised if their relationship gets ruined after Dvalishvili's possible loss, especially if he ends up making excuses. With all these circumstances going against Dvalishvili, he has earned being the predicted dud for UFC 306.