3 keys to victory for Sean O'Malley & Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306

UFC 306 at the Sphere is officially happening at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sept. 14. This special event involving Mexican fighters is in honor of Mexican Independence Day. Headlining the event is an elite fight involving Sean O'Malley, the bantamweight champion, defending his title against No. 1 ranked Merab Dvalishvili. Both fighters are on impressive win streaks, which they earned as fighters, in their prime, possessing high-level skills. Each fighter has an obvious style they can use to win this fight, making this a competitive fight to call. Below are each fighter's keys to victory they can use to win this fight.

3 keys to victory for Sean O'Malley

1. Control range

O'Malley's main style is striking, as he is an elite, high-IQ sniper at range. All it takes is one good punch to put a fighter's lights out. Dvalishvili is hittable, but, he is a tough fighter with a good recovery. O'Malley can stop Dvalishvili as he is a much more powerful, skilled striker than the fighters who have hurt Dvalishvili. However, he will have to be smart in finding the right punches at the right time to allow a finish to come while not rushing anything. Marlon Morales found out the hard way at UFC 266 when he tried to rush a finish when he got Dvalishvili hurt, leading to Morales being the one who got stopped in the end.

The primary way O'Malley can control range is with his reach advantage, as he has a 72-inch reach while Dvalishvilli has a 68-inch reach. Besides finding a finish, O'Malley's reach can help stop Dvalishvilli from imposing his style of overwhelming opponents with pressure. From the right distance, he can keep hurting him with power punches until he breaks him, which would be smarter than rushing. As Dvalishvilli gets hurt, the more hesitant he becomes. It can then become O'Malley's fight to win.

2. Use footwork

O'Malley has great footwork that he uses well to pick his opponents apart. He put an absolute masterclass in his last fight at UFC 299 where he avenged his only loss to Marlon Vera. Vera had a hard time figuring O'Malley out, as he could not land significant strikes inside the distance. O'Malley's footwork will be useful in his upcoming fight as that can assist in his first key to victory in controlling range. With the right footwork, Dvalishvilli can have a hard time shooting takedowns as he tries to pressure O'Malley against the cage. Cage awareness is something O'Malley will need to also have as he uses his footwork to move around the Octagon.

3. Defend takedowns

Dvalishvili has the wrestling advantage over O'Malley as he has a background consisting of judo, sambo, and Georgian wrestling. His cardio is a great asset to his wrestling, as he shoots as many takedowns as he wants without ever getting tired. The good news for O'Malley is that Dvalishvilli does not always commit to takedowns. He likes to shoot takedowns, at times, to just get his opponents hesitant on the feet. O'Malley can defend the takedowns with his footwork, making Dvalishvilli miss, or with just normal, defensive techniques he possesses, as seen in his fights with Petr Yan and Aljimain Sterling.

3 keys to victory for Merab Dvalishvili

1. Be defensively responsible

Dvalishvili has never been knocked out in his career, but, he has been hurt a few significant times. The fights with Morales and Henry Cejudo are the best examples, as they both cracked him with a solid, left hand. Dvalishvili recovered well, but, if O'Malley timed that well, it could have been a worse situation for Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili must maintain great striking defense in this fight to avoid being a highlight-reel finish for O'Malley's career. That is an important asset if he is going to impose his famous, high-paced pressure style on O'Malley to finally become champion. A high guard and good, head movement would be useful to dodge O'Malley's long, power punches.

2. Close the distance

While O'Malley's main path to victory is keeping a range at a distance, Dvalishvili has to get past O'Malley's range to close the distance to win. If he can close the distance, he can use his wrestling to win on control and points. If he is strong enough and can get O'Malley against the cage, he can land strikes on the inside, since O'Malley can't outpoint him at range. This victory key ties into Dvalishvili's first key of being defensively responsible, though. If he is to close the distance, he has to avoid getting hit with any significant shots. If he can figure out closing the distance early, he can drown O'Malley out in the later rounds, where he has historically thrived.

3. Wrestle

Dvalishvili has a significant, wrestling advantage over O'Malley that should be a necessity he must use to win. He can take down any opponent in various ways, whether it is single-legged, double-legged, or picking them up to slam them on the canvas. Cejudo was an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling, and Dvalishvili took him down five times. Even with six other failed takedown attempts, the pace and cage control were difficult to escape. Dvalishvili's path to victory may look boring, but, it is smart if he is to win.