Bellator 295: Raufeon Stots vs. Patchy Mix predictions & odds
Previewing & predicting every Bellator 295 main card fight.
The second of Bellator MMA's double-header this weekend, Bellator 295 looks to upstage the event held the night before with an outstanding selection of fights. Live from the Neal S. Blaisdell Arena in Honolulu, HI, Saturday, April 22 could not come sooner for Bellator fans.
An MMA legend steps into the cage once again, a pair of contenders look to solidify their spot for a title shot, and the highly anticipated bantamweight grand prix final will be contested in this action-packed night.
Without further ado, here are my predictions for Bellator 295's main card.
*All odds are from DraftKings.com.
Predictions and odds for Bellator 295: Raufeon Stots vs. Patchy Mix
Kyoji Horiguchi (-230) vs. Ray Borg (+195)
One of the biggest names to come from Japan in the history of MMA, Kyoji Horiguchi (31-5) makes his return to the Bellator cage since losing to Patchy Mix in the bantamweight grand prix quarter finals a year ago. This time, the former Bellator and RIZIN FF bantamweight champion will be making his Bellator flyweight debut, a weight class that he returned to in 2022 for the first time in over five years.
His opponent on the other hand is all too familiar with the 125 pound division. Making his Bellator debut, former UFC flyweight title challenger Ray Borg (16-5) will be looking to make a splash by picking up a victory over the no. 6 ranked bantamweight contender.
What is particularly interesting is that Bellator does not actually have a men's flyweight division. Are we about to see the promotion expand their weight classes? If they are setting it up, no bout would be more appropriate to do so than this one.
Whilst Borg is on good form, winning his last three contests in a row, I still expect Horiguchi to do what he has done throughout his career. Put people to sleep.
Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi by KO/TKO
Aaron Pico (-720) vs. James Gonzalez (+520)
Perhaps the bout with the least at stake, Aaron Pico (10-4) takes on a late replacement in James Gonzalez (10-5) in a featherweight clash. The no.3 ranked 145-pounder Pico was set to take on Otto Rodrigues before he pulled out due to injury at the beginning of this month.
Whilst you always have to give credit to fighters willing to step in on late notice, particularly against such a dangerous opponent such as Pico, i'm not giving Gonzalez much of a chance whatsoever. He is yet to be finished in his professional career and even has a win under the Bellator banner, however, Pico is one of those fighters that began their career at Bellator and continues to be a menace in his division despite coming back from a gruesome shoulder injury.
I expect Gonzalez to keep his 'not finished' record intact but Pico will use his elite wrestling to control the fight throughout.
Prediction: Aaron Pico by decision
Co-main event: Ilima-Ley Macfarlane (+115) vs. Kana Watanabe (-135)
A clash at the top of the women's flyweight division with title implications is set for the co-main event. One of Bellator's pioneers, the first ever flyweight champion in the promotions history Ilima-Ley Macfarlane (12-2) returns to action. She faces one of the scariest competitors in the whole division in Kana Watanabe (11-1) in what could be a thrilling bout.
Whatever the result may be on Friday night between champion Liz Carmouche and DeAnna Bennett, it would not be surprising to see the winner of this bout be next in line for a title shot. Macfarlane never got a chance to win her belt back despite having the most title fight wins by a female fighter ever in the promotion (5). Watanabe has never even fought for an MMA world title in her career, and even though she does have a loss to Carmouche, a win over a historic name as Macfarlane's could prove to be the difference maker.
With only three losses between them, and Watanabe being the only one to be finished, it's hard to see this fight end before 15 minutes. However, I expect Macfarlane to look to make a statement and continue to rack up Bellator records on her way to another title fight.
Prediction: Ilima-Ley Macfarlane by submission
Main event for the bantamweight grand prix final: Raufeon Stots (-135) vs. Patchy Mix (+115)
The finale to the bantamweight grand prix is finally upon us. After a whole year of competition, the final two men left standing will clash to see who takes home the interim 135-pound title, the next shot at champion Sergio Pettis, and a glorious 1 million dollar prize.
The current interim champion, Raufeon Stots (19-1) has done nothing except dominate since joining Bellator. In fact, he is a perfect 7-0 in the promotion and is riding an 11 fight win-streak with his only loss coming from the currently no.1 ranked UFC bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili in 2017. If you like form, bet on Stots.
However, betting against Patchy Mix (17-1) might not be the smartest idea. He's been an underdog in each of his grand prix fights but has found a way to convincingly dispatch opponents. First came Kyoji Horiguchi in a thrilling quarter final. Magoved Magomedov was then dispatched in the second round in the semis.
This fight might actually be too close to call. My brain says pick the two-time NCAA Division II wrestling champion in Stots but with Mix having an impressive amount of submission wins in his career, I feel like taking the underdog might be smarter. He's done it all throughout the tournament, why can't he pull off one more upset to take the whole cake?
Prediction: Patchy Mix by submission
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