1 best and worst bet at UFC 306

UFC 306 will be taking place at the Sphere in Las Vegas and has become one of the most highly anticipated events in recent memory. Headlining the card is none other than Sean O'Malley who will be defending his bantamweight championship against Merab Dvalishvili. While much of the promotion surrounding the event is what the spectacle inside the Sphere will look like, rather than the substance of the fight card alone. However, there are still plenty of fights, including a pair of championship bouts, that could help turn a profit with the right bets. Let's take a look at the best and the worst bet at UFC 306.

UFC 306 best bet: Sean O'Malley by knockout +170

To the surprise of some, O'Malley enters his second bantamweight championship defense as the betting favorite over Dvalishvili. While O'Malley arguably has the best striking in the 135 pounds division, his opponent looks to be a matchup nightmare for the reigning champion who has yet to face off against someone quite like Dvalishvili.

O'Malley has fought only a couple of wrestling-based opponents in the past, but none with the constant pace and pressure of Dvalishvili, so why is he the favorite at UFC 306? The reason - O'Malley's distance control and precision striking. Dvalishvili has incredible cardio, possibly the best in the UFC right now and some of the best the Octagon has ever seen. This, however, won't be a problem for the current bantamweight champion at UFC 306.

With a significant height and reach advantage, O'Malley, standing at 5'11" with a 72" reach compared to just 5'6" & 68" for his opponent respectively, the champion will use his elite footwork to stay on the outside and find the target from the beginning of the fight to the end. The case for a knockout victory also lies in the fact that Dvalishvili has nearly been finished in previous contests against much lesser strikers than that of O'Malley. His recent fights against Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes are the best examples of opponents who have nearly knocked Dvalishvili out early in the fight.

With Dvalishvili's tremendous grappling skill, it may be difficult for O'Malley to earn a submission, and if the fight goes the entire scheduled 25 minutes, it's reasonable and maybe even likely that Dvalishvili will be victorious. However, Dvalishvili may be too aggressive when looking for takedowns, leaving him susceptible to O'Malley's counters.

While Dvalishvili has otherworldly toughness and durability, look for O'Malley to land early and often on his way to a knockout victory, making him our best bet at UFC 306.

UFC 306 worst bet: Alexa Grasso -140

Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will look to possibly conclude their trilogy at UFC 306. Grasso first earned her flyweight championship with a shocking upset submission victory over Shevchenko at UFC 285. Since this monumental victory however, Grasso has fought just one time with that fight being against Shevchenko in a rematch almost exactly one year ago.

While Shevchenko has been equally inactive since March 2023, she possesses much more experience not only in the UFC and against high-level talent, but in five-round championship fights in particular. This is not to say that Grasso should have any issues going the full 25 minutes if necessary, but Shevchenko has competed in 13 five-round fights in the UFC compared to just three for Grasso.

What also makes this trilogy matchup interesting is in their most recent fight from September 2023, Grasso and Shevchenko fought to a controversial split draw where many believe Shevchenko should have emerged as the champion once again. The split draw was determined by a 10-8 round-five scorecard in favor of Grasso which should have been ruled a 10-9 round for Grasso according to most (if not everyone) who watched the fight. The extra point deducted from Shevchenko's fight total resulted in a 47-47 final scoring on one card, directly leading to a draw.

Grasso has proven in both fights against Shevchenko that she is more than capable of matching her opponent in all areas of MMA. However, Shevchenko has proven throughout her career that she is one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time, and outside of a misstep at UFC 285, she is still in the midst of one of the most remarkable careers in UFC history.

With a loss at UFC 306, Shevchenko will likely have to win several fights in order to earn a fourth fight against Grasso. She may also be looking to make a much greater statement inside the Octagon and leave the judges' (at times) questionable decision making out of the fight. With this added motivation, Shevchenko will reclaim her flyweight championship with a win, making Grasso the worst bet to make at UFC 306.

All odds are according by FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.