1 best and worst bet at UFC 299

UFC 299 goes down on March 9 and is absolutely loaded with fan-friendly matchups. Not only does the card have endless action, but it seems to have endless opportunities to turn a profit on the night.

The card is headlined by Sean O'Malley who will be trying to defend his UFC bantamweight title for the first time against Marlon "Chito" Vera. O'Malley's only professional loss was against Vera in 2020, a fight that ended under some controversy with O'Malley suffering a leg injury early in the bout.

Dustin Poirier welcomes Benoît Saint-Denis to the elite of the lightweight division in a five-round co-main event that has all the makings of a fight-of-the-year contender.

Michael "Venom" Page makes his long-awaited debut in the UFC as he takes on fan favorite Kevin Holland. The remainder of the undercard and preliminary bouts are full of must-see, non-stop action.

Dustin Poirier is UFC 299's best bet

Dustin Poirier +164

Poirier is entering an interesting stage of his career. While he is sporting one of the best resumes in the history of the UFC lightweight division, he is also coming off of a head-kick knockout loss in his most recent fight with Justin Gaethje.

Having just turned 35 years old and never holding an undisputed UFC championship, many are questioning whether he can still hang with the up-and-coming fighters in the division, namely his next opponent, Saint-Denis.

With the odds suggesting Saint-Denis should be able to take care of business, Poirier at +164 is a great value pick at UFC 299.

Though Poirier is coming off the aforementioned loss to Gaethje from July 2023, he has never lost back-to-back fights in his entire professional MMA career. The addition of the fact that this bout will be a five-round co-main event is also a massive advantage for Poirier as Saint-Denis has yet to see a fourth or fifth round in his professional career. If this fight makes it to the championship rounds, look for the former interim champion to turn up the pressure in typical style.

Along with fighting the top of the division for years, Poirier has also become accustomed to handling southpaws with high striking acumen through his time training for Conor McGregor. If Poirier can weather a likely early storm he should be able to take over and prove why he has a spot reserved for himself in the UFC Hall of Fame one day.

Jack Della Maddalena is UFC 299's worst bet

Jack Della Maddalena -174

In a similar position as Saint-Denis, Jack Della Maddalena is another young fighter ranked outside of the top 10 looking to take out one of the mainstays of the division. Through his proficient boxing-first style, Della Maddalena has been able to climb his way to the No. 11 ranked welterweight position in the UFC and is on the precipice of breaking into the top five.

Standing in his way is Gilbert Burns, who, like Poirier, has been at the top of his division for years and looking to defend his ranking. While Della Maddalena could prove his slick striking is too much for Burns, the value at -174 is not worth the risk in a parlay or a straight bet.

Burns has been able to use his well-versed grappling skills to handle some of the best fighters in the welterweight division for years. Fights against Stephen Thompson and Jorge Masvidal are perhaps his best examples of being able to completely neutralize high level strikers to grind out decision victories. Della Maddalena's recent fight against UFC newcomer Bassil Hafez best demonstrates how Burns could take advantage of the fight through grappling, as the massive underdog Haffez pushed the fight to a split decision although he ultimately came up short on the scorecards.

Burns' striking ability and power is also something that cannot be forgotten about in this matchup. While Della Maddalena likely has the technical advantage, Burns has been going toe-to-toe with championship level competition for years. This fight feels like the odds could be flipped, and with the clash of styles in play, you should stay away from betting Della Maddalena.

All odds are according to FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.