1 best and worst bet at UFC 295
By Jaren Kawada
UFC 295 is right around the corner and despite a major shakeup in the lineup there are still many interesting matchups. With that comes a lot of potential betting opportunities.
Jon Jones is no longer on the card, but we still get Alex Pereira facing the return of Jiri Prochazka for the vacant light heavyweight belt. The co-main event also features the long-awaited clash between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall for the interim heavyweight title.
Within the minefield of possible betting action on the card, two bets stand out: one as the best and one as the worst.
All odds according to Fanduel Sportsbook. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Matt Frevola is UFC 295's best bet
Matt Frevola +176
This is going to be an incredibly close back-and-forth fight which makes the fact that the Frenchman opened as a -400 favorite puzzling. Benoit Saint-Denis may win this fight, but there is no reason he should be this big of a favorite.
Saint-Denis has looked incredible in his last two fights, but he matched up perfectly with both of those opponents. Not only was he a terrible style matchup but he also towered over both men, as Gabriel Miranda is now a featherweight and he made Thiago Moises look as if he should be one as well.
The one thing Saint-Denis has lacked in his UFC run thus far is his striking defense. Neither Miranda nor Moises held much power, but both were able to hit him cleanly with Saint-Denis able to eat shots in order to deliver his own. That won't work against Frevola. The last time Saint-Denis ran into someone who matched his size and could capitalize on his openings resulted in one of the worst referee moments in the sport's history.
Frevola's coach, Ray Longo, has to also be considered. Frevola has cashed as an underdog in back-to-back fights and Longo has not received enough credit for the brilliant game planning behind those wins. Saint-Denis' best path to victory in this fight is to take the 'Steamrolla' down, but it's easy to forget that aside from Arman Tsarukyan, nobody has had a lot of success wrestling Frevola.
As a nearly -300 favorite, this line is far too wide, especially considering Frevola will be the crowd's favorite and is undefeated fighting in New York. This is going to be a war and if you want to sweat out a side, take the one with plus money value.
Jessica Andrade is UFC 295's worst bet
Jessica Andrade +162
It may be tempting to take the former strawweight champion at underdog odds, but this is going to be Andrade's fifth fight of 2023. Not only is that an incredibly high volume at this high of a level, but she has not looked like herself for most of the year.
Andrade started the year out great by thumping Lauren Murphy but fell off a cliff after taking a short-notice fight with Erin Blanchfield. She's rushing into fights way too much right now and each opponent is seemingly worse for her than the last. At just 32, it already feels like the end of an incredible career.
On top of getting finished in three straight fights, Andrade was submitted in two of them and now faces the best submission artist in the division. To make matters worse for her, Mackenzie Dern looked sensational against Angela Hill and had the best striking performance of her career.
It seems like a bad time to fight Dern right now and an even worse time for Andrade to be back in the octagon making this a potentially catastrophic way to end the year for the Brazilian.
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