UFC Paris: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak prediction

UFC returns to Paris where Ciryl Gane will fight Sergey Spivak in the main event, and here is our prediction.
Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane / JOEL SAGET/GettyImages

Ciryl Gane fights in the main event in Paris like he did in September 2022, where he knocked out Tai Tuivasa, and he will be hoping for a similar result against Sergey Spivak. 

His win against Tuivasa is his only win in his last three fights while Spivak has won six of his last seven fights. This fight will have a huge impact on the rankings of the heavyweight division as Gane is ranked No. 2, and Spivak will be looking to move out of the No. 7 ranking and into the top five.

The DraftKings odds have Gane as the favorite at -166 with Spivak the underdog at +140

Spivak has improved immensely over his UFC career, and his takedown and ground game has become a force as his last three wins have been by ground and pound or submission on the mat. He will certainly be looking to implement the takedown and get this fight to the ground as Gane should have the striking advantage on the feet.

The last two losses for Gane could have given Spivak a path to victory. Jon Jones finished Gane early by wrestling him to the ground and getting the submission. Francis Ngannou has five total takedowns in his UFC career, and four of them were against Gane in a fight that Gane lost on the scorecards, mainly due to the takedowns. If Gane is to win this fight, he must stuff the takedowns from Spivak and keep the fight on the feet.

If Gane is to win, he will have to avoid the takedowns, and he has put most of his focus into takedown defense. While he might not stuff all the takedowns, he should be able to make Spivak work extremely hard and eventually wear him down. Spivak’s cardio has not been tested recently, and Gane has gone into round three or later in five of his last six fights. Gane will have the striking advantage with his jab and clinch work, and that will be the difference over five rounds.  Spivak will be tough early in the fight, but Gane should pull away in the later rounds and win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Ciryl Gane via decision.

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