Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad preview and prediction

The UFC is set to make a return to the United Kingdom on Saturday, July 27. UFC 304 will take place at the Co-op Live Arena in Manchester, and it will be headlined by two title fights. The co-main event will see Tom Aspinall defend his interim heavyweight title against Curtis Blaydes. The main event will be a defense of the welterweight title.

Leon Edwards is now 700 days into his reign as the welterweight champion. He first won the title at UFC 278 when he defeated Kamaru Usman. Since then, he has had two title defenses - one against Usman and the second against Colby Covington. This will be Edwards' third title defense, and he gets to do it in front of his hometown crowd.

He defends the title against the no. 2-ranked Belal Muhammad. He made his UFC debut in July 2016, and has been a mainstay in the promotion since then. Muhammad has won eight out of his last nine fights, and this title opportunity has been a long time coming. But this will not be the first time that Edwards and Muhammad meet in the Octagon.

Edwards and Muhammad had their first match in March 2021 at the UFC APEX, when they headlined a fight night. The match came about after Edwards' original opponent, Khamzat Chimaev, was pulled from the fight due to COVID-19. The fight ended just 18 seconds into the second round after Edwards delivered an accidental eye poke on Muhammad. This led to the bout being ruled a no contest. Now, almost three and a half years later, they get to run it back.

This time, the stakes are higher. Edwards is champion and Muhammad is looking to trade his no. 2-ranked position for that title. Although Edwards and Muhammad are different in a variety of ways, they are also quite similar in other ways. These will ultimately play a role in how the rematch between them goes.

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad preview and prediction

Edwards made his professional MMA debut in 2011, following two fights on the amateur circuit that same year. Before joining the UFC in 2014, Edwards was on the UK regional circuit, including being signed to Fight UK MMA. On the other hand, Muhammad made his professional debut in 2012 before joining the UFC in 2016. Before joining the UFC, Muhammad had fought at several other promotions including Bellator, Titan FC, and Hoosier FC.

Edwards stands at 6 feet, and his reach is 74 inches. In comparison, Muhammad comes in at 5-foot-10 with a reach of 72 inches. Whilst Muhammad has an orthodox stance, Edwards adopts the southpaw stance. These could also affect how the fight ultimately plays out.

Both Edwards and Muhammad train in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and this serves as part of their fighting styles. Edwards is a Black belt in BJJ under Thomas Bracher whilst Muhammad is a Purple belt under Daniel Wanderley. Edwards also has wrestling, Muay Thai, and kickboxing in his arsenal. Muhammad also employs wrestling and boxing in his training.

Edwards' record is 22 wins and 3 losses, and he is undefeated since 2016. Since then, Edwards has been riding a 12-fight winning streak. A majority of his wins have come via decision (11). Two of his three losses were results of decisions, and the other one was a disqualification.

Even though the first fight between Edwards and Muhammad ended in a no contest, the fight gave a bit of insight into how the pair fair against each other. Edwards had an aggressive output, and he was heavy on the attack. Muhammad, on the other hand, was forced to take on the defensive approach but his efforts paled in comparison to Edwards'. Although the fight ended early in the second round, all three judges scored the first round 10-9 in favour of Edwards.

Muhammad is a dangerous opponent and challenger, and this is thanks to his wrestling, which allows him to be quite a formidable force on the ground. Edwards is known for his kickboxing but, over the years, he has drastically improved his wrestling. This could mean that, should the fight find itself on the ground, Muhammad could have the advantage but it might not be as helpful, as Edwards now knows how to defend himself. However, for Edwards, the fight staying on the feet could be his domain.

Whilst Edwards and Muhammad match up or are similar in a lot of ways, there is little room to doubt that the champion is superior when the two stand. The first round of their first match showed that and, since then, Edwards has only gotten better. If they do go to the ground, Muhammad would need to make sure his ground game is extra polished against the champion.

Edwards has delivered more decision victories lately but he has proven that he can also get a finish in the past. It can be expected that, with this rematch, Edwards will pull off a rare but possible finish. This could be in the form on a knockout or a technical knockout.

Prediction: Leon Edwards defeats Belal Muhammad via knockout