3 keys to victory for Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak at UFC Vegas 95

UFC Vegas 95 goes down on August 10 and will be headlined by No. 8 ranked Marcin Tybura vs. No. 9 ranked Sergey Spivak. This is a rematch of a fight in February 2020 at UFC Norfolk, where Tybura won unanimously. That was a prelim fight going from the prelims to a main event, showing how much both fighters have grown in skill and name recognition. Tybura and Spivak have grown to a decent point where both have an equal chance to win the rematch. They each have their keys to victory, which will be discussed below.

Marcin Tybura's keys to victory

1. Avoid the Clinch

For Tybura, he needs to avoid the clinch as his first victory key. Spivak's biggest skill improvement has been his powerful clinch takedowns where he can ragdoll and takedown any heavyweight, regardless of size, if he can clinch with them. When Spivak gets his opponents down to the ground, he possesses vicious, ground striking, and a skilled, submission threat. Tybura can avoid the clinch by just using lots of movement and punching long from a distance. When Spivak cannot get clinch takedowns, he can panic and crumble under the lights. He does not possess strong single or double-legged takedowns.

2. Strike

Another key to victory would be for Tybura to win the striking exchanges. In their last fight, Spivak got the better of the striking exchanges but Tybura was so effective with his wrestling, he won all three rounds. Today, Spivak has gotten so comfortable with his clinch wrestling, that he dislikes engaging with strikers. Today, Tybura has looked better, though not world-class, in striking than Spivak. The striking key and no clinch key go hand-in-hand together, as Tybura's striking can keep Spivak from clinching him.

3. Offensively wrestle

The final key to victory for Tybura is to do what he did in the first fight to win in the first place, and that is to wrestle offensively. His 33% takedown accuracy may not be as high as Spivak's 64%, but he is better at getting different takedowns, though. Unlike Spivak, Tybura can be good at going for single and double-legged takedowns. Tybura took Spivak down two, out of eight, times and his ground control was great each time. It is to be seen how Spivak's takedown defense has improved since then. Ever since the first Tybura fight, only one fighter has attempted to offensively wrestle Spivak, which was Aleksei Oleinik in June 2021, who took down Spivak one time, in two attempts.

Sergey Spivak's keys to victory

1. Clinch

Clinching is Spivak's most important key, as that is where his wrestling thrives and how he generally wins fights. Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis had never been rag-dolled and submitted the way they did before they met Spivak in the Octagon. Tybura does not have the footwork of Ciryl Gane, who smoked Spivak last time. Spivak can look for opportunities to set up clinch situations in different ways, such as blitzing or using more of the striking from the first fight. He cannot fight like a deer in the headlights like last time. This is a rematch of a major career loss to him, and he needs to be more aggressive, looking for a win, as he needs to be determined to clinch by any means necessary.

2. Defend against Tybura's takedowns

It is important for Spivak to not get taken down by Tybura and if he does, to get back to his feet as soon as possible. That is his second key to victory, where he must make sure his defensive wrestling is on point. On the ground, Spivak has to make sure his submission defense and defense against ground strikes are also on point. That is so Tybura cannot find a finish or win on points, like last time. If Spivak can defend the takedowns or escape from being on the ground, that opens clinch situations, which is where he can impose his own wrestling game. As mentioned earlier, it has been three years since someone has tried to offensively wrestle Spivak, meaning the rematch will show whether there has been any improvement in Spivak's defensive wrestling over the years.

3. Strike

Though unlikely that he will pursue it, Spivak could be smart to impose his striking, if it has improved some since the Gane loss in September 2023. He had some success standing with Tybura in the first fight, and if he had defended all takedowns, he could have won the first fight. Sometimes fighters can get too comfortable wrestling, they are anxious to engage in any striking. If Spivak can win in striking and wrestling, that is dominance, which the judges would love. Spivak does not have to knock out Tybura as he just has to win on points until he can impose his will, which includes clinch wrestling to find a finish. It will be interesting if this fight goes to the championship rounds, as Spivak has never seen those rounds in his career.