1 best and worst bet at UFC Vegas 95

Later this week, the UFC will return to the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada after holding events in England and Abu Dhabi. Due to several fight cancellations, Saturday's UFC Vegas 95 only features ten matchups, including a rematch in the opening bout and main event.

In the main event, number nine-ranked heavyweight Serghei Spivac looks to move up a spot against the number eight-ranked Marcin Tybura. Spivac and Tybura first fought at UFC on ESPN+ 27 in February 2020, with the latter emerging victorious by unanimous decision.

Over four years later, Spivac (-160) plans to avenge his previous defeat against Tybura (+135) following a second-round KO/TKO loss against Ciryl Gane. Meanwhile, 'Tybur' last fought in March when he defeated Tai Tuivasa by first-round submission (rear-naked choke).

Heading into UFC Vegas 95, many fans will potentially capitalize on the opportunity to make money by placing wagers. Luckily for them, there are several fights with favorable lines, as long as they can avoid the traps placed by oddsmakers.

Take a look below at one bet that should be heavily considered and one fight that should be avoided at all costs. Always remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the action live from the UFC APEX.

Best: Danny Barlow by knockout

In September 2023, Danny Barlow fought on Dana White's Contender Series against Raheam Forest. The undefeated welterweight didn't take long before knocking out Forest in round one, extending his professional MMA record to 7-0 and earning him a UFC contract.

Five months later, Barlow made his UFC debut and his continued his KO/TKO streak by taking out Josh Quinlan in round three. The 29-year-old nicknamed 'LeftHand2God' has won four consecutive fights by KO/TKO, including three in the first round.

At UFC Vegas 95, Barlow looks to continue building momentum when he faces Nikolay Veretennikov. The former Contender Series contestant (unanimous decision loss against Michael Morales) will fight under the UFC banner for the first time on Saturday and plans to pull off an upset.

Veretennikov is what is known as a kill-or-be-killed fighter. The Kazakhstan-born welterweight has only seen the scorecards four times in his sixteen-fight professional MMA career. He's also won three consecutive fights, all inside the distance, leading to his opportunity at UFC Vegas 95.

Most betting websites have not released official odds for Barlow vs. Veretennikov prop bets. With that said, the wager to strongly consider is Barlow by KO/TKO. 'LeftHand2God' is one of the best-kept secrets in the welterweight division, especially when it comes to his striking.

Barlow's striking skills are slick and lethal over a three-round period. The 29-year-old should be able to capitalize on Veretennikov's eagerness to make a statement in his UFC debut and put him out in round one or two. Take anything under -250, which shouldn't be a problem for a KO/TKO prop bet.

Worst: Anything on Karl Williams vs. Jhonata Diniz

Karl Williams earned his UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2022. Since then, the heavyweight grappler has made a name for himself amongst diehard fans by securing unanimous decision wins against Lukasz Brzeski, Chase Sherman, and Justin Tafa.

Williams has shown flashes of potential during this UFC tenure thus far but hasn't had a statement-making performance to prove he's a legitimate future contender. On Saturday night, the 34-year-old looks to grapple his way to another victory against Jhonata Diniz.

In April, Diniz fought in the UFC for the first time after also earning a UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series. Things started out rough for the former Glory Kickboxer, as Austen Lane took him down in round one and didn't let him back up, which was a massive red flag for a highly-touted striker.

Diniz quickly shifted the momentum in round two and knocked out Lane for his first Octagon win. Fans will find out what the 33-year-old is about on Saturday, as he's been matched up against Williams, who's proven he can execute his grappling-heavy attack for all three rounds.

According to Bovada, Williams is a respectable -210 betting favorite, with Diniz as a +175 underdog. Some gamblers may see Williams as the clear choice due to the stylistic advantage, but they should be cautious because this fight has parlay spoiler written all over it.

There's a possibility that Williams simply takes down Diniz at will and holds him down for fifteen minutes. On the contrary, Diniz showcased impressive composure in his UFC debut and had plenty of gas left in the tank despite the one-sided grappling exchange in round one.

Therefore, Diniz might get taken down early and find a way to secure the knockout win in round two or three. Nonetheless, people should stay away from this heavyweight matchup to avoid disappointment, as the result on Saturday will provide much-needed evidence to understand how to gamble on both fighters moving forward.