1 best and worst bet at UFC 305

UFC 305 will be headlined by one of the most highly anticipated middleweight championship fights in UFC history. Dricus Du Plessis will attempt to defend his 185-pound championship for the first time against the returning No. 2 ranked contender Israel Adesanya.

UFC 305 will also be live from RAC Arena in Perth, Australia - the same country where Adesanya lost to Sean Strickland in his most recent fight and middleweight title defense at UFC 293. In what could be Adesanya's last chance at the middleweight championship for some time, his matchup against Du Plessis may be the most pressure-filled fight of his entire career.

Also on the UFC 305 main card, an important flyweight contest between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg could determine who is next in line for a matchup against Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight championship.

No. 5 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot will be putting his top-5 ranking on the line against No. 11 Dan Hooker in another fight that has significant divisional importance. With several potential matchups to wager on at UFC 305, let's take a look at the best and worst bet.

UFC 305 best bet: Dricus Du Plessis -108

The long awaited showdown between Du Plessis and Adesanya has been built up for over a year at this point with fight fans around the world eagerly anticipating their matchup at UFC 305.

Adesanya enters the contest having lost two of his last three fights, though this is not to completely discredit his chances of victory at UFC 305. The losses were to a pair of former middleweight champions in the aforementioned Strickland and now light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira.

Adesanya was able to even his MMA series against Pereira with a knockout victory over Pereira at UFC 287 but looked much slower and lacking in energy against Strickland. Whether he underestimated Strickland, was injured prior to the fight, or was simply outmatched at UFC 293, it was certainly a concerning performance for those looking to wager on the former champion at UFC 305.

Du Plessis on the other hand is undefeated in the UFC at 7-0 and has already put together an incredible track record of wins. His upset stoppage win over Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 was one of the more shocking victories of 2023 as he established himself as one of the best 185 pounds fighters on the planet.

Looking at his matchup with Adesanya, Du Plessis has a style that could present some problems for the former champion. Though at times, Du Plessis can look unconventional inside the Octagon, he has a strong background in kickboxing that he will undoubtedly use at UFC 305.

Along with his kickboxing prowess, he has been able to use his size and grappling ability to land a total of 16 takedowns in his seven career UFC fights. What may be even more impressive is that in his four most recent fights against Strickland, Whittaker, Derek Brunson, and Darren Till, respectively, he was able to land 14 takedowns between these four contests.

With his ability to use his grappling against the best at middleweight, along with his toughness and durability, he will prove to be a difficult matchup for Adesanya, and is our best bet at UFC 305.

UFC 305 worst bet: Dan Hooker +250

Hooker is one of Adesanya's teammates at City Kickboxing, and at UFC 305, he will be facing a similar difficult stylistic matchup inside the Octagon. Standing across from him will be Gamrot, who is 24-2 professionally with one no contest.

Gamrot has won seven of his nine UFC fights with his only losses being decision defeats to Beneil Dariush in October 2022 and Guram Kutateladze in his promotional debut. What makes this fight so tough for Hooker is the relentless wrestling style Gamrot will look to utilize at UFC 305.

Though Hooker has solid takedown defence at 80% and has certainly improved this part of his game since his early days in the UFC, many of his recent stylistic matchups have favoured a more stand-up fight.

Against Gamrot however, Hooker will undoubtedly need to defend at least a handful of takedowns in order to secure a victory. Gamrot has successfully landed 38 takedowns across eight UFC contests, with an astonishing 11 takedowns in his most recent fight against Rafael dos Anjos. What makes this even more impressive is that these 11 takedowns were over the course of only 15 minutes.

Gamrot has a takedown accuracy of 35% and with his high volume of takedown's completed, this means that he is constantly looking to take the fight to the ground. This is exactly where any of Gamrot's opponent's, in this case Hooker, do not want to be, as three rounds against a grappling heavy style can leave almost zero room for error when defending.

Also, the last time Hooker was matched up with an elite grappling style opponent, Islam Makhachev, he was taken down and submitted in just over two minutes. Overall, it will likely be too tough of a stylistic matchup for Hooker to overcome, making him our worst bet at UFC 305.

All odds are according to FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.