1 best and worst bet at UFC 303

UFC 303 bettors should pay attention to these two particular fights in for very different reasons.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

UFC 303 went through several substantial changes in the weeks leading up to the UFC's International Fight Week event. From a card originally featuring Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler and Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree, UFC 303 will now see three brand new fights including Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka, Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, and Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze.

With these seismic changes taking place to one of the most important cards of the year, here's a look at the best and worst bet at UFC 303.

UFC 303 best bet: Jiri Prochazka +142

Prochazka has earned himself another shot at the UFC light heavyweight championship against Pereira at UFC 303. In their last fight at UFC 295 from November 2023, Pereira defeated Prochazka by second round TKO to win the vacant UFC light heavyweight championship. Although Pereira looked impressive, the stoppage was highly contested by many fight fans around the world.

In their first fight, Prochazka was able to win round one on all three judges' scorecards and was able to implement many strategies that worked against Pereira. Using his wrestling to try and drain Pereira along with his forward pressure allowed him to experience early success in the fight.

For Prochazka to re-claim his light heavyweight gold, he will need to use a similar game plan as his last fight while also staying away from Pereira's left hand. Based on his last performance against Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 300, Prochazka will almost assuredly remain helpless against Pereira's leg kicks which will certainly play a major role in the outcome of the fight.

However, Prochazka has shown other worldly toughness and a seemingly careless approach to defending certain techniques from his opponents, including and most apparently, leg kicks. The fight will likely end within the first two or three rounds as both competitors have a similar ability to finish the fight at any point. Look for Prochazka to win this fight in the opening three rounds to set up a future trilogy bout against Pereira.

UFC 303 worst bet: Ian Garry -120

Though Garry is in a prime position to win this fight as he is undefeated, higher ranked, and matches up well with his opponent, solving the puzzle that is fighting Michael "Venom" Page is a difficult task for anyone in the UFC.

At 14-0, Garry is quickly making his way to the top of the welterweight division with every fight. Though the odds suggest he should continue his winning ways at UFC 303, and while he may do just that, any bet placed on Garry cannot be done with absolute certainty.

In his last fight, Garry won a rather uninspiring split decision over Geoff Neal. His latest victory before that was another three round decision over Neil Magny in a fight where he looked much more like his usual self. Still however, Garry remains unbeaten and is now looking for the most meaningful win of his career so far.

If Garry is able to win his fight against Page, it will likely need to be done methodically over the course of 15 minutes rather than a quick finish or a dominant performance. Page is 22-2 professionally and is coming off of his UFC debut victory over Kevin Holland at UFC 299. Page has one of the most impressive highlight reels of anyone in the sport with several jaw dropping knockout victories. A win over Garry would likely put Page just a win away from a possible shot at the welterweight championship.

Look for this fight to be a technically sound mostly kickboxing matchup between two of the best strikers in the UFC with the final result being closely debated. All odds are according to FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.