UFC Vegas 97 predictions & odds

The UFC is returning to action at the UFC APEX for a card on Sept. 7. The main event will be No. 6 ranked Gilbert Burns and No. 8 ranked Sean Brady fighting at welterweight. Burns is a veteran looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses to top contenders, Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddellana. On the other hand, Brady wants to be active again as injuries caused him inactivity when he suffered his first career loss to Muhammad and bounced back, submitting Kelvin Gastelum. The winner of this main event will get opportunities to compete with the top five ranked welterweights to get themselves into title contention.

The co-main event is another top-10 matchup but this time in the women's flyweight division. No. 6 ranked Jessica Andrade is a former champion who loves being active in flyweight and strawweight against any fighter at any time in pursuit of regaining the belt. No. 8 ranked Natalia Silva is on an 11-fight winning streak, with two knockouts and six submissions, as she is a rising prospect with great potential. An exciting fight will take place at featherweight between Kyle Nelson and Steve Garcia, who both love to swing hard in the stand-up. Garcia is stepping in on short notice after a spectacular first-round knockout over Choi Seung-woo on July 20 after Nelson's original opponent, No. 9 ranked Calvin Kattar, pulled out due to an injury. The winner of this fight could earn themselves a ranked featherweight with an impressive win.

The prelims will air at 4 p.m. ET, while the main card airs at 7 p.m. ET. Both parts of the card will air exclusively on ESPN+. Predictions will be given for all the card's major fights beforehand. The odds, subject to change, will be courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Isaac Dulgarian (-2200) vs. Brendon Marotte (+870)

The featured prelim of this card features two up-and-comers battling it out in the featherweight division. Isaac Dulgarian is a skilled wrestler from Factory X while Brendon Marotte is a decent striker from New England Cartel. Both are coming off a loss, but, Dulgarian's is more respectable since he lost a close, competitive decision against Christian Rodriguez while Marotte quit quickly against Terrance Mckinney. Dulgarian is way better in the wrestling department than Marotte so this likely can be an easy night for him. He will likely be the first fighter to finish Marotte this early in his career.

Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian by TKO

Ryan Spann (-350) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+255)

This will be a fight between two fighters on unimpressive skids, mixed with winning, losing, or both in the light heavyweight division. It should not be surprising if the loser gets cut after a skid of unimpressive performances. Ryan Spann is 33 years old and has a history of bouncing between middleweight and light heavyweight outside his UFC career, as he won titles in different organizations years ago. He is currently on a three-fight losing streak, consisting of a submission loss to Nikita Krylov, a split decision loss to Anthony Smith in a rematch, and a knockout loss to Bogdan Guskov. Ovince Saint Preux is 41 years old, as he has bounced between heavyweight and light heavyweight in his career, fighting against the top names in the history of the 205 division. He is 2-3 in his last five fights, winning two, mediocre split decisions and getting knocked out three times.

While Spann has powerful hands and a good, guillotine choke, he lacks cardio, durability, and defensive wrestling. Saint Preux, in his prime, would be the better fighter due to better, overall striking and offensive wrestling. However, age is his major problem, affecting his speed, durability, and cardio. Saint Preux, right now, is not an aggressive fighter, as he prefers staring at opponents and slowly attempting to outstrike them. Spann should win this fight due to being younger, faster, and more aggressive.

Prediction: Ryan Spann by KO

Rong Zhu (-265) vs. Chris Padilla (+200)

This is a lightweight fight between two fighters on four-fight winning streaks with mostly finishes. Rong Zhu is 25-5, coming off four wins with two knockouts, one submission, and one decision. Chris Padilla is 14-6, coming off four wins with two knockouts and two submissions. Both are well-rounded and love pressure. This fight will likely come down to who can take better advantage of pressure and can remain more composed when pressured. Padilla likely can pull an upset due to Zhu having a history of losing fights when he is always pressured.

Prediction: Chris Padilla by decision

Trevor Peek (-128) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+100)

Another lightweight fight will happen, which should be a fun fight due to these fighters being primarily strikers. Yanal Ashmouz is a major, knockout artist while Trevor Peek is a walking, durable, pressuring machine. Ashmouz is better everywhere, as he can brawl and land combos better than Peek. He can wrestle well at times and land good, ground strikes when he can. Ashmouz is tough himself, as he managed to lose in the distance by a decision to Chris Duncan in July 2023, which was his first career loss. This is shaping up to be a dog fight, which Peek has thrived in with past fights. However, damage will be a major factor in which Ashmouz can win, whether it is close or not.

Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz by decision

Steve Garcia (-192) vs. Kyle Nelson (+148)

Another fun striker vs. striker matchup will happen, but this time, in the featherweight division. Nelson loves to throw front, body kicks to his opponents so he can set up powerful overhands to force brawls, where he thrives. Garcia is the more creative striker as he possesses more weapons such as kicks and elbows that have helped him score knockout victories. If Garcia is to win, there is a good chance he will have to weather an early storm, as Nelson can be dangerous early. Garcia has proven he can just do that in some of his previous victories with second-round knockouts.

In his fight with Shayilan Nuerdanbieke at UFC 287, Garcia was dropped in the first round but pushed through to win by stopping Nuerdanbieke with a body kick in the second round. Garcia was wrestled heavily by Melquizael Costa for the whole first round in December 2023, at the UFC APEX. He survived the wrestling storm to knock out Costa with elbows in the second round. The first round will be intense as both fighters will have their moments, but, Nelson may look better as he may nearly finish Garcia. After the first round, Garcia will likely take over due to surviving the early adversity and finally figuring Nelson out.

Prediction: Steve Garcia by TKO

Natalia Silva (-290) vs. Jessica Andrade (+215)

This is a veteran vs. young prospect, despite Andrade being only 32. Andrade has much experience, as she has faced many of the biggest names in three different weight classes in a 13-year career. At bantamweight, she faced Jennifer Maia and Raquel Pennington in the early years of her career. At strawweight, Angela Hill, Joanna Jędrzejczyk, and Zhang Weili were some of the opponents Andrade faced. Flyweight had fights involving Andrade against athletes such as Katlyn Cerminara, Valentina Shevchenko, and Erin Blanchfield. Andrade's most famous moment was becoming champion at UFC 251 by slamming the then-champion, Rose Namajunas, on her head on the canvas.

As Silva possesses an 11-fight winning streak, she has had an impressive five UFC fights as she recently outclassed Viviane Araújo while knocking out Victoria Leonardo and Tereza Bledá. She has good potential as she is skillfully well-rounded while having good cardio. This will be Silva's most experienced opponent, yet, as Andrade is a powerful, pressure-heavy striker who likes to bully other fighters with size in addition to pressure. Andrade is physically strong, as she can offensively wrestle occasionally when she needs to. Silva is more likely to win because she has a speed advantage and has good momentum at a younger age. There should be no surprise if Andrade has moments and gets Silva in trouble at times with good, offensive attacks.

Prediction: Natalia Silva by decision

Sean Brady (-188) vs. Gilbert Burns (+246)

From a grappling perspective, this is an interesting main event as it is another veteran vs. young prospect matchup. Burns, who is 38, has a career of 12 years, consisting of sharing the Octagon with notable fighters such as Gunnar Nelson, Tyron Woodley, Kamaru Usman, and Khamzat Chimaev. He is a multiple-time BJJ champion. Brady is 31, has been competing for 10 years, and has only one loss to the current welterweight champion, Muhammad. As he has a background consisting of BJJ and Muay Thai, Brady has famous wins over Jake Matthews, Michael Chiesa, and Gastelum. He also has victories over high-level grapplers, Craig Jones and Ben Saunders, in Fury Pro Grappling.

While Burns is someone other fighters want to avoid being on the ground with due to his elite BJJ background, Brady has a strong chance to get the better of the grappling exchanges with Burns. Though he has decent takedowns, Burns lacks control ability as Jorge Masvidal, in his retirement fight, was able to get up multiple times while Maddalena, who had staph and a broken arm, scrambled out of each takedown as he avoided ground damage. Both of those fighters were primarily strikers and had no wrestling bases. Brady, on the other hand, has excellent, ground control as Gastelum, an NJCAA wrestler, had trouble getting up from all five of Brady's takedowns. Chiesa has been wrestling since he was 11, and, he had a hard time escaping from Brady's ground control in five takedowns.

If Brady can survive and beat BJJ specialists, such as Jones and Saunders, he can survive against any submission attempt Burns tries. Burns has the advantage on the feet due to his powerful overhands and pressuring chaotic style. If Brady is defensively responsible, he could win on the feet by avoiding overhands and timing good, straight punches, which can drop Burns. Burns can be tentative on the feet too, as seen against Masvidal and Maddalena. A possible takedown threat can assist Brady in winning those striking exchanges. With a high age and coming off a knockout loss, Burns definitely can get stopped by Brady.

Prediction: Brady by TKO