UFC Vegas 96 predictions & odds

On August 24, another card will be going into action at the UFC APEX. The card will be headlined by No. 5 ranked Jared Cannonier and No. 12 ranked Caio Borralho, who will both be competing in a middleweight main event. Cannonier is a veteran who is looking to bounce back from his recent stoppage loss to Nassourdine Imavov while Borralho is a rising prospect looking to leap into the top five after an impressive KO victory over Paul Craig. This main event could serve as perfect timing after the recent events of the middleweight title picture. With Dricus du Plessis remaining the new champion and being open to any challenge, an impressive victory from the main event winner could put them in the conversation for a title shot.

The co-main event will be a top 10 women's strawweight matchup between No. 9 ranked Angela Hill and No. 11 ranked Tabatha Ricci. Hill is a veteran of the strawweight division, as she has competed with many big names in that division. At 39 years old, she has looked impressive recently and is looking to work her way up to the title picture. Ricci is a young prospect who can make almost any fight competitive, whether she wins or loses. Another anticipated matchup of the night is an undefeated, rising welterweight named Michael Morales getting the biggest test of his career so far against No. 12 ranked Neil Magny, a well-known gatekeeper.

The prelims will start at 7 PM ET, while the main card begins at 10 PM ET. Both parts of the whole fight card will stream on ESPN and ESPN+. Before the fight card airs, the biggest fights will get predictions. The odds, subject to change, are the courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dennis Buzukja vs. Francis Marshall

This is a last-minute replacement, as Dennis Buzukja was initially going to face Danny Silva in a featherweight bout. However, Silva pulled out for an undisclosed reason and Francis Marshall stepped in as a late replacement. This new bout with two featherweights will be contested at lightweight. Buzukja was initially not getting picked due to Silva having a wrestling and technical striking advantage. Buzukja will now be the pick due to Marshall being less of a skilled, technical striker than Silva and his wrestling seeming pretty low-level. The biggest factors are also Marshall coming off a knockout loss a year ago and not having a full camp for this fight.

Prediction: Dennis Buzukja by TKO

Edmen Shahbazyan (-320) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+235)

This is a matchup with high stakes, as the winner will be on their first win streak in a couple of years. Both have suffered losing streaks but for different reasons. Edmen Shahbazyan was a hot prospect as a talented, young kid who the UFC saw had great potential. He was 11-0 to start his MMA career, as most of his wins were by first-round knockout. Unfortunately, Shahbazyan was pushed to the top too soon as he suffered brutal losses to many top fighters including Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, Imavov, and Anthony Hernandez. After his first three-fight losing streak, Shahbazyan bounced back by knocking out Dalcha Lungiambula, leading to his loss to Hernandez and a knockout victory over AJ Dobson.

Meerschaert, on the other hand, has been competing in MMA for 17 years and is up there in age now at 36 years old. His most recent losses include Krzysztof Jotko, Joe Pyfer, and Andre Petroski. After the Jotko loss in April 2022, Meerschaert had a submission win over Bruno Silva before going on his two-fight losing streak to the other fighters. He finally bounced back after he submitted Bryan Barberena in March 2024. Meerschaert's recent losses were to low-level fighters, while Shahbazyan lost to only some of the best.

Shahbazyan's specialty is striking, as he has good kicks and knockout power. Meerschaert's striking is okay, but, but relentless wrestling is his main specialty. Though wrestling is Shahbazyan's weakest skill area, I see more potential in him to win this fight. He is 26 years old and still learning at Xtreme Couture, leading him to have the potential to show improvement in this low-level matchup. As he defends against Meerschaert's takedowns, his striking style with speed could make Meerschaert uncomfortable on the feet as he looks for another knockout.

Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan by TKO(-340)

Michael Morales (-1000) vs. Neil Magny (+560)

Morales is an undefeated prospect with great potential. Despite his background being in wrestling and judo, he is mostly a striker, as 11 of his 16 wins have been won by knockout. He has four UFC fights that he won against Trevin Giles, Adam Fugitt, Max Griffin, and Jake Matthews. Magny's style consists of point striking at a distance and clinch wrestling most of the time. In a career going on for 14 years now, he has shared the octagon with major names such as Johnny Hendricks, Rafael dos Anjos, Robbie Lawler, and Shavkat Rakhmonov. As he is still aging, Magny's career is in an inconsistent state, meaning he will win a fight, lose, win, and then lose again.

Magny may not be the most skilled, but, he is always in a fight until the end. He was losing to Daniel Rodriguez and Mike Malott until he found a finish in the last minute. Though those were impressive wins, Magny cannot likely repeat that with Morales. Unlike those opponents, Morales has good wrestling and proven cardio for all three rounds. Morales likely will become one of the few people to stop Magny.

Prediction: Michael Morales by TKO(-750)

Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos

Both seem like similar strikers, as both like to come forward. Their wrestling also seems pretty even. Kaan Ofli appears to be more favored in terms of durability and never being finished. If both land hard shots, Ofli seems like the one that would be more favored. Mairon Santos has shelled up when he gets blitzed at, and that could be where Ofli's pressure game could pay off. Ofli appears to be a fighter who is dangerous throughout if he cannot get taken out early.

Prediction: Ofli by TKO

Ryan Loder vs. Robert Valentin Frey

Ryan Loder is a dominant wrestler who lacks striking and finishing potential. Robert Valentin Frey is a well-rounded finisher who is capable of knocking out and submitting any fighter. Due to his well-rounded skill and finishing potential, Frey seems like the better pick. Frey could lock up a submission on a bad takedown attempt, or knock out Loder on the feet after defending a takedown. A knockout would be the most likely scenario for Frey winning, due to that appearing to be Loder's weakest skill area.

Prediction: Frey by TKO

Angela Hill (-118) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-108)

Hill can strike well, maintain range, and her defensive wrestling has improved in recent fights. Recently, she got her first career submission over Luana Pinheiro in her last fight. That was impressive as Pinheiro had never been submitted in her career before that. She has looked great in skill even as she is older now with lots of experience with top strawweights. Hill has been in the Octagon with the likes of Lupita Godinez, Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Jessica Andrade, and Rose Namajunas.

Ricci is a pressure-heavy striker who likes attempts to relentlessly wrestle. She may not always out-strike and out-wrestle opponents. However, her pace can make fights closer than they should be. Ricci lost a split decision to Godinez when it should not have been a split decision, while winning a split decision against Tecia Pennington when she should have lost. As she has a black belt in BJJ, Ricci does possess a submission threat as she has won three of her 10 wins by armbar submission.

Hill should win this fight due to being a better striker, as her range could give Ricci's reckless style trouble. Her defensive wrestling and submission defense can hold up well against Ricci, who is inconsistent in takedown attempts. Ricci went 0/6 on takedown attempts against Godinez while going 1/10 against Pennington. Since she is better everywhere, Hill can make this fight less close than Ricci's previous fights. Hill winning a unanimous decision would be the best bet.

Prediction: Hill by decision (-118)

Caio Borralho (-245) vs. Jared Cannonier (+186)

As a member of the Fighting Nerds gym, Borralho is well-rounded, as he can strike and wrestle effectively at the same time. He has a karate-like stance as he bounces around while trying to pick the right shots. His chin seemed solid as he ate solid punches from Michał Oleksiejczuk, who is famously known as a hard hitter, in April 2023. Though Borralho has never seen championship rounds, his cardio has seemed good enough to win three-round decisions in some of his past fights. Besides Oleksiejczuk, Borralho has good wins over Craig, Abus Magomedov, and Makhmud Muradov.

Cannonier is a pressure-heavy striker who likes to overwhelm his opponents with his power. Though he gets taken down often, holding him down is a hard task. He has a weak chin, as he was rocked by Marvin Vettori, who is not a power puncher and was stopped recently by Imavov. Cannonier's cardio is solid, but, it looked decreased when he recently fought Imavov, whose cardio looked better as the fight went longer. After a dominant performance over Vettori in June 2023, Cannonier had a year-long layoff due to an MCL tear. The ring rust likely played a role in Cannonier not looking as dominant against Imavov.

Borralho seems like the better pick due to being younger and having momentum with his 15-fight winning streak. Cannonier is 40 as he is making a quick turnaround after a stoppage loss, and that could play into Borralho's favor. Cannonier may have some early success with pressure and may land solid punches. Borralho will likely eat them, remain composed, and take over as the fight goes longer. Cannonier will suffer another stoppage loss that will not be as early this time as Borralho will ascend into the top five rankings.

Prediction: Borralho by TKO(+430)