UFC Vegas 89 predictions & odds

Kurt Holobaugh (+130) vs. Trey Ogden (-155)

Veteran lightweights will look to make a splash when Kurt Holobaugh (20-7) fights Trey Ogden (16-6). Holobaugh is fresh off his TUF 31 tournament victory over Austin Hubbard. The 37-year-old has 17 career finishes but is most impressive on the ground. He's collected 10 pro-MMA submissions and is dangerous off his back. Ogden is equally impressive on the ground, with 11 career submissions.

Ogden and his counterpart are both 5 feet 11 inches tall. Ogden carries a 72-inch reach, giving him a two-inch advantage. He's had a lukewarm 1-2 (1) run so far in the UFC, stifling the momentum of surging prospect Daniel Zelhuber but falling victim to Jordan Leavitt and Ignacio Bahomondas. Given their skills, both fighters may nullify each other on the ground. Expect battles for positional dominance to be a theme and for striking supremacy to make a difference.

Prediction: Holobaugh by round-two submission

Fernando Padilla (-166) vs. Luis Pajuelo (+140)

Featherweight Fernando Padilla (15-5) welcomes UFC newcomer Luis Pajuelo (8-1) to the Octagon in an exciting match between promising prospects. Padilla is massive for the weight class at 6 feet 1 inches tall and swinging a 76-inch reach. The 27-year-old is two years younger than Pajuelo but is much more experienced in professional MMA. He has 13 career finishes with eight submissions. He's 1-1 in the UFC so far and coming off a disappointing loss to Kyle Nelson.

Pajuelo is smaller at only 5 feet 10 inches tall and with a 69.5-inch reach. But he has a lot of power and technical boxing prowess. The former Peruvian national boxing champion has adapted his skills perfectly for MMA, garnering seven knockout victories, including a vicious finish over Robbie Ring on DWCS. Pocket boxing is key for Pajuelo. Forcing his way inside to land heavy shots on Padilla will serve him well.

Prediction: Pajuelo by round-two knockout