UFC Vegas 87 predictions & odds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+140) vs. Shamil Gaziev (-166)

The heavyweight landscape may drastically change depending on the result of the main event between Rozenstruick (13-5) and Gaziev (12-0).

No. 12 ranked Rozenstruick has fought the best heavyweights in the world. The 35-year-old former kickboxer has scored knockouts in 12 of his career victories. This is his fourth UFC main event, but his record is a mere 1-3 in these opportunities.

Gaziev only arrived in the UFC in 2023, finishing Martin Buday in his lone outing. The 34-year-old is known for a smothering clinch game, using it to force opponents to the mat and unleash hellish ground and pound. He's ridden this formula to 11 finish victories with eight knockout/TKO finishes.

The glaring difference between the two combatants is in the striking department. Rozenstruick is a more accomplished kickboxer. Gaziev throws good combinations but is not known for being the defensive or offensive striker Rozenstruick is. Gaziev is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist who can likely exploit Rozenstruick's clinch and takedown deficiencies.

Jailton Almeida proved Rozenstruick doesn't offer much submission resistance in their 2023 main event. This loss was telling and contributed to Rozenstruick losing three of his last four bouts and having to fight unranked competition.

Rozenstruick historically has a hard time getting going against the heavyweight division's elite grapplers. Gaziev is a lifelong grappler and bigger than Rozenstruick at 6 feet 4 inches tall compared to his foe's 6 feet 2 inches. Gaziev must stifle Rozenstruick on the feet and not tire out searching for a finish if it doesn't immediately present itself. Otherwise, Rozenstruick may ride his five-round experience to a victory, picking Gaziev apart till earning a knockout.

Prediction: Gaziev by round two TKO