UFC Vegas 86 betting odds & predictions

  • Will Joe Pyfer live up to the hype?
  • Will Jack Hermansson prove experience is better than age?
  • Everything you need to know about UFC Vegas 85 odds
Apr 8, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Joe Pyfer (blue gloves) celebrates defeating Gerald Meerschaert
Apr 8, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Joe Pyfer (blue gloves) celebrates defeating Gerald Meerschaert / Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Vegas 86 is week two in an 11-week schedule of UFC fights. Can you feel the excitement?

Joe Pyfer takes on Jack Hermansson in the main event and it should be an absolute treat. Pyfer brings tremendous versatility with his striking and takedowns, but that right hand has been scary during his path to the UFC. Hermansson, on the other hand, loves to grind fights and has improved striking to go along with his grappling.

In the co-main event, Dan Ige and Andre Filli are set to do battle in what could be a fight of the night contender. Ige is durable, has improving power, and has solid footwork to pick his angles. Filli comes from Team Alpha Male and has worked his way to bigger fights. He started in the UFC at a young age, but Filli is well on his way to fighting better competition.

Here are the full card predictions for UFC Vegas 86. Odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook are subject to change.

Daniel Marcos (-160) vs. Aoriqileng (+140)

Daniel Marcos continues to impress during his rise with the UFC. Similar to many others, Marcos made his way to the UFC via Dana White's Contender Series and is 2-0 in the UFC. His most recent win came against Davey Grant via split decision. Aoriqileng made a splash early in his UFC career due to his exciting style. He most recently defeated Johnny Munhoz via unanimous decision. What stands out here is Aoriqileng's dependency on takedowns. If Marcos can keep this on the feet, there's a good chance he can grind out a dominant three-round decision or could finish the fight late. his 69% striking defense and 89% takedown defense are the difference.

Prediction: Daniel Marcos via unanimous decision

Hyder Amil (-255) vs. Fernando Garcia (+215)

Another undefeated fighter, Hyder Amil, is set to make his UFC debut against Fernando Garcia. Both guys are on opposite ends of their UFC careers right now, with Amil looking to have a strong start and Garcia looking to save his job. He's lost three straight and gets a tough test against newcomer Amil. Amil has solid experience and is another prospect from the LFA promotion. While the UFC has been patient with Garcia, the level of UFC talent in his losses suggests he might not be ready for the big time. With Amil, he has a solid three-inch reach advantage and has impressed in all areas of MMA so far. Barring a huge upset, Amil should be able to kick off his UFC career in style, especially with Garcia taking this fight on short notice.

Prediction: Hyder Amil via unanimous decision

Zac Pauga (-160) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+140)

This one will be a tough one to call. Bogdan Guskov had a tough debut against Volkan Oezdemir, There seems to be a cardio question here and the Zac Pauga could have the edge. He's seen more three-round fights, has fought tougher competition in the UFC, and trains at elevation with Elevation Fight Team. Guskov has power, but he's big and has gone to a decision just once. He's shown a bit more of a slower, one-big-punch style, and we're not sure how well he'll do if it hits the ground. Regarding versatility and cardio, it's hard to give Guskov an edge against a fighter who should come alive as the fight goes on, but he still needs to get out of the first. This fight could go either way.

Prediction: Zac Pauga via second round TKO

Jeremiah Wells (-175) vs. Max Griffin (+140)

A couple of almost 40-year-olds in peak physical shape are set to go to war with Jeremiah Wells and Max Griffin. Wells proved his cardio and will are underrated against Matthew Semelsberger. At the same time, Carlston Harris proved he's the real deal in Wells' last fight. Griffin likes to grind, which should work in his favor here, but the pace is slow. Wells starts fast and could do some serious damage early on. If he can't finish, Griffin could take over as the fight goes on. If Wells gets the back, the rear-naked choke is one of his favorites and he should have an edge on the ground, but Griffin has never been submitted. Griffin's best chance here is to make this a dogfight and force Wells into uncomfortable places. Unfortunately, the pace and cardio might not be there for all three rounds.

Prediction: Jeremiah Wells via unanimous decision

Devin Clark (-130) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+110)

If you're a fan of the MMA chess match, look no further than Devin Clark and Marcin Prachnio. Clark is a takedown-or-die type of fighter while Prachnio has solid kicks and can do damage to the body. Clark is willing to eat shots to get his arms around you, which makes this an interesting fight. Prachnio will need to use his kicks to keep the fight on the feet. If Clark can get his takedowns over three rounds and stay there with some damage, there seems to be no path to victory for Prachnio. This is a wrestler vs. striker match and it looks like the wrestler should have the edge here.

Prediction: Devin Clark via unanimous decision

Loma Lookboonmee (-193) vs. Bruna Emanuele Brasil (+168)

If you have not watched Loma Lookboonmee fight, you're in for a real treat. Don't let the physical stats fool you. Even though Brasil has a significant edge in reach, everyone usually does. Lookboonmee's ability to read her opponents and find holes is the most elite part of her game. She got her first UFC finish over Elise Reed in her last bout via rear-naked choke, but this one could prove to be tougher. Brasil lost her UFC debut to Denise Gomes via knockout, which could be an area to look out for here against Lookboonmee. Shot selection and timing will be important here and, so far, Lookboonmee has looked the part.

Prediction: Loma Lookboonmee via unanimous decision

Bolaji Oki (-200) vs. Timothy Cuamba (+164)

Bolaji Oki is an exciting prospect. His first-round performance on the Contender Series was incredible, but there is something that stands out. Timothy Cuamba is stepping in on short notice but has a solid career under his belt so far. In terms of playing spoiler, Cuamba could be live here. Oki's performance to win the contract was all too perfect. Once he landed the perfect shot, he just followed that up to get the win. At the same time, it was just the first round. Cuamba has a lot more experience and better quality of opponents. If he can withstand the high pressure early, there's a chance he can pull off the win as the fight goes on. He's got quick hands, good footwork, and the accuracy is on point. Good chance he can surprise everyone.

Prediction: Timothy Cuamba via unanimous decision

Trevin Giles (+150) vs. Carlos Prates (-165)

The UFC is putting Trevin Giles on notice. When he wins, it's close, when he loses, he loses badly. He's 2-3 in his last five fights with split and unanimous decision wins. He's getting the unfortunate task of welcoming UFC newcomer Carlos Prates. He won his fight on the Contender Series and has finished his last six wins. He will push Giles into tough areas and if Giles can't keep up, there's a good chance he sees another tough loss or a close decision. Either way, style-wise, this does not look good for Giles given Prates' quick and versatile striking will be far too much for Giles.

Prediction: Carlos Prates via second round TKO

Rodolfo Vieira (-130) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+110)

This is the perfect fight to say, play the number. Rodolfo Vieira is a grappling phenom but has slowly made his way through the UFC ranks. He's trapped in that win-one-lose-one path, which means Armen Petrosyan should be licking his chops. This line does not make much sense. Vieira has done well with slower strikers who struggle on the ground with elite grapplers. Despite the accolades, he was still submitted by Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan is 4-1 in his last five and has never lost by submission. His 36% takedown defense isn't worth the price, but get in while it's hot.

Prediction: Armen Petrosyan via unanimous decision

Michael Johnson (-125) vs. Darrius Flowers (+105)

Is the UFC trying to throw Michael Johnson a bone here for his misleading MMA record? Maybe. Johnson has been in there with the best and he continues to train at Kill Cliff FC. Darrius Flowers is a solid contender, but he's 0-1 in the UFC after losing via submission to Jake Matthews. The power shot will be there against Johnson who lives by kill-or-be-killed, but the technical aspect must side with Johnson. This will be a gameplan-based victory. If Johnson chooses to stand and bang from the beginning, he could eat one clean shot. If he chooses to mix it up and keep Flowers guessing, this should be his fight. Johnson's decision-making is the one thing that affects him but this is not a fight he can lose. He should be able to box his way to victory.

Michael Johnson via unanimous decision

Brad Tavares (+225) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-265)

The award for the most surprising line goes to, Brad Tavares and Gregory Rodrigues. Tavares has an underrated UFC record, and his two losses via finish are from a high kick and a knee with solid combinations. Rodrigues has had an interesting UFC career since his Contender Series loss. The most notable part is working with Kill Cliff FC to improve his striking and punching power. He's had some memorable fights and this could be another one. Tavares needs to be defensive-minded and know when to back up. He has a slight defensive edge here but Rodrigues' power could come into play. Tavares' two other losses since 2018 outside of the previous two mentioned are Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis. Gregory has not proven to be worthy of a -265 line against Tavares and, in a dogfight like this, the experienced fighter who has gone the distance with three previous champions stands out.

Prediction: Brad Tavares via unanimous decision

Robert Bryczek (-275) vs. Ihor Potieira (+235)

This is clearly a showcase fight for Robert Bryczek. Squeezed between the co-main and the previous fight mentioned, this stands out. Ihor Potieira is 1-3 since the Contender Series and gets one of the more highly-touted Polish fighters on the main card. Bryczek has won his last five fights with a knockout in under three minutes. Potieira has been finished in all three of his UFC losses. This does not look good for the Ukrainian fighter on the verge of getting cut by the UFC. Barring a huge surprise, Bryczek looks to be on the UFC's short list to get bigger fights soon.

Prediction: Robert Bryczek via first round TKO

Dan Ige (-150) vs. Andre Filli (+130)

Dan Ige hasn't been finished since a 2012 amateur fight. Take that in. The list of UFC losses includes Bryce Mitchell, Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett, Chan Sung Jung, Calvin Kattar, and Julio Arce. Ige has every chance to fight for a title one day simply because he can beat everyone outside of the top 10. He's not working his way into battling the top five more consistently, but here comes reborn Andre Filli first. Filli had a great showing against Lucas Almeida. He was tactical, precise, and patient. The perfect storm.

It won't bet as easy against Ige, though. Ige's footwork, power, and defense have been his ticket to fighting only the best fighters. Looking at Filli's experience, this will be one of his toughest fights to date. Filli's best chance is to be quick and use his length to land the better shots. If Ige can't find the early power punch, UFC fans should be in for a treat if they go the distance. In terms of all-around skill, Ige has the edge and should be able to find his way to victory wherever the fight goes.

Prediction: Dan Ige via unanimous decision

Joe Pyfer (-250) vs. Jack Hermansson (+210)

Joe Pyfer is the definition of prospect and now gets to test his skills against a veteran like Jack Hermansson. Style-wise, this seems like a terrible fight for Hermansson. When you consider Roman Dolidze's ability to use his power to control Hermansson on the ground, it's difficult to not give Pyfer the upper hand. His right hook is putting guys out consistently, plus his timing and takedown ability is proving to be one of his best assets when fighters get too close. His setups are great as he moves in and out, and Hermansson's boxing might not be able to keep up. Hermansson has done well against pure strikers, other than maybe Sean Strickland, but he tends to struggle against the more versatile fighters, like Marvin Vettori or Dolidze.

Pyfer is just that. He's got the ground game to rely on if his takedowns are there, but his power and footwork to land big shots is his modus operandi. He's been able to do it successfully throughout his rise as a UFC fighter and the hype is real. Hermansson's best chance is to ride out the early waves and hope to get him tired. Pyfer hasn't seen the scorecards since 2018, and that could be the best way to stop the train in a five-round fight. While Hermansson via decision or late submission could be a sneaky play, staying in the fight early on is the hard part.

Prediction: Joe Pyfer via second round TKO