UFC Mexico predictions and odds

  • UFC Mexico takes place on Saturday, Feb. 24
  • It's headlined by a rematch between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval
  • Here's how we think each of these fights will play out on Saturday
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Yair Rodriguez (blue gloves)  prior to the fight against
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Yair Rodriguez (blue gloves) prior to the fight against / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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Daniel Zelhuber (-270) vs. Francisco Prado (+220)

Lightweight's bright future is on display when 14-1 Daniel Zelhuber battles 12-1 Francisco Prado. 24-year-old Zelhuber has 10 career finishes and tight technique for someone so young. He won via anaconda choke his last time out against Christos Giagos. He is long and lanky for the weight class at 6 feet tall and touting a 77-inch wingspan. Opposite Zelhuber is a tough challenge in the form of Prado. At only 21 years old, Prado has already compiled a perfect finishing rate with six wins via submission and six by knockout. His lone UFC win came by ground and pound against Ottman Azaitar in 2023. Prado is tall for the division as well at 5 feet 11 inches tall but only has a 69-inch reach. This bout figures to be an aggressively paced crowd-pleaser between two young prospects on the comeup. Zelhuber likely brings the technical edge but must remain calculated as Prado has many ways to win.

Prediction: Zelhuber by round two submission

Yair Rodriguez (-155) vs. Brian Ortega (+130)

The featherweight co-main event is a rematch between 18-4 former interim champion Yair Rodriguez and 15-3 BJJ ace Brian Ortega. Their previous 2022 main event matchup ended via dubious circumstances when Ortega couldn't continue after injuring his shoulder in Rodriguez's submission attempt. Rodriguez seemed to be getting the better of the stand-up portion of the fight and impressed on the ground. 31-year-old Rodriguez has remained active since meeting Ortega, defeating Josh Emmett and losing a title bid to then-champion Alexander Volkanovski. Ortega has been on the sidelines, not boding well for the 33-year-old former title challenger. Rodriguez is a far more polished striker and has a lot to build off of in terms of success from his prior fight with Ortega. It remains to be seen how Ortega holds up after such a long layoff and recovery process.

Prediction: Rodriguez by round two knockout

Brandon Moreno (-290) vs. Brandon Royval (+235)

The flyweight main event sees 21-7-2 former champion, Brandon Moreno rematch 15-7 former title challenger, Brandon Royval. Like their last meeting in 2020, this also comes on relatively short notice. Royval stepped in to replace the injured Amir Albazi in an opportunity that could get him another crack at the champion, Alexandre Pantoja. In fact, both fighters are coming off of losses to Pantoja and a victory could edge them closer to rematching their mutual nemesis. Moreno won the first match after an injury kept Royval from breaking away from Moreno's ground-and-pound onslaught. Both men have made significant strides in their skill sets since their first encounter. They each favor the stand-up game but are competent submission artists who could produce exciting scrambles if the fight leans grapple-heavy. Each man is highly durable and a decision is likely.

Prediction: Moreno by decision


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