UFC Mexico predictions and odds

  • UFC Mexico takes place on Saturday, Feb. 24
  • It's headlined by a rematch between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval
  • Here's how we think each of these fights will play out on Saturday
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Yair Rodriguez (blue gloves)  prior to the fight against
Jul 8, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Yair Rodriguez (blue gloves) prior to the fight against / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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Claudio Puelles (+164) vs. Fares Ziam (-198)

Lightweight's first showing of the night is an intriguing matchup between 12-3 Claudio Puelles and 14-4 Fares Ziam. Puelles needs to bounce back after a rough loss and performance to Dan Hooker in 2022. The 27-year-old's elite leg lock game was completely subdued before being TKO'd by a body kick. Puelles is still 5-2 in the UFC with three kneebar victories. 26-year-old, Ziam is a big lightweight standing at 6 feet even and swinging a 75-inch reach. This gives him an advantage over Puelles who only stands at 5 feet 10 inches with a 72-inch reach. He is 4-2 in the UFC and beat Jai Herbert last time out. Puelles needs to work harder to set up his leg locks now that opponents know to avoid them. Ziam must exploit any deficiencies in Puelles's striking, dominate the exchanges, and ride his success to a TKO or decision.

Prediction: Puelles by round two submission

Edgar Chairez (-425) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+330)

Flyweights Edgar Chairez and Daniel Lacerda had to rematch after their Noche UFC fight was prematurely stopped. It seemed as if Chairez choked Lacerda out, prompting referee Chris Tognoni to separate the two. Unfortunately, the decision was hasty as Lacerda was still awake. Now 10-5 (1) Chairez looks to pick up where he left off and dispatch 11-5 (1) Lacerda. Both men are still looking for their first UFC win, but Lacerda is down bad for one in the worst way. 27-year-old Lacerda is 0-4 with the promotion thus far compared to 28-year-old Chairez's 0-1. Given their career trajectories and prior but albeit controversial results, Chairez is one of the night's biggest favorites.

Prediction: Chairez by round one knockout

Jesus Santos Aguilar (+105) vs. Mateus Mendonca (-125)

Another flyweight bout, this time between 9-2 Jesus Santos Aguilar and 10-2 Mateus Menonca, is scheduled for the tail end of the prelims. 27-year-old Aguilar is 1-1 in the UFC after knocking out Shannon Ross just 17 seconds into their UFC 290 fight. He packs power and owns six submission victories. 25-year-old Mendonca is unfortunately 0-2 in the UFC but has finishes in six of his wins on the regional scene. Mendonca holds a massive reach advantage with a 71.5-inch measurement compared to Aguilar's 62-inch mark. His best hope is to keep Aguilar on the edge of his shots and stay away from his power.

Prediction: Aguilar by decision

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