UFC Mexico predictions and odds

The UFC makes its long-awaited return to Mexico City on Feb. 24 with a Fight Night event headlined by a rematch between popular flyweights Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval. The co-main is also a rematch between featherweights Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega.

This will be the first UFC event in Mexico since 2019. Like last time, the bouts are being held at Arena CDMX.

Smaller weight classes will be the night's focus as the heaviest competitors will weigh in at the lightweight limit. Mexico's best-established fighters and some of its promising prospects fill the card.

The talent on display, crowd energy, as well as stakes in the two headlining bouts are sure to bring the excitement. With Draftking's help, let's take a deep dive into each matchup and predict the entire 13-fight card starting with the prelims.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Erik Silva (+425) vs. Muhammad Naimov (-575)

Featherweights Erik Silva and Muhammad Naimov open the card. The 29-year-old Naimov has impressed since joining the UFC in 2023. He's beaten Jamie Mullarkey and Nathaniel Wood to bring his overall record to 10-2. The 36-year-old Silva has yet to pick up a UFC victory and has not competed since submitting to T.J. Brown late in the third round of his lone UFC appearance in 2022. They each stand at 5 feet 9 inches and are almost equally matched in reach with Silva holding a 71-inch edge over Naimov's 70-inch wingspan respectively. Naimov will look to use his explosiveness, youth, and well-rounded MMA skillset to stifle the much older Silva. Silva's inactivity and age are causes for concern in his matchup with Naimov.

Prediction: Naimov by round two knockout

Victor Altamirano (+240) vs. Felipe dos Santos (-298)

The first flyweight match of the night is between 12-3 Victor Altamirano and 7-1 Felipe dos Santos. Former DWCS signing Altamirano has had mixed success in the UFC, going 2-2 thus far and losing last time out to Tim Elliot in 2023. While dos Santos also lost his previous fight to Manel Kape, he impressed as a late-notice replacement and showed he could essentially hang with the division's best without a training camp. 10 years separate the 33-year-old Altamirano and 23-year-old dos Santos. Besides that glaring difference, their statures are similar as both have 70-inch reaches while Altamirano is 5 feet 8 inches tall and dos Santos is 5 feet 7 inches. Expect a competitive, back-and-forth fight, as both men are durable and likely eager to avoid consecutive losses.

Prediction: dos Santos by decision

Luis Rodriguez (-118) vs. Denys Bondar (-102)

One of the evening's closest contests on paper is at bantamweight between Luis Rodriguez and Denys Bondar. Rodriguez has won five straight fights after a failed appearance on DWCS. The 24-year-old debutante has 11 finishes on his 15-2 record. Bondar has gone winless in his two UFC chances. He has 17 finishes on his 19-4 record but shines on the ground with 13 of those stoppages coming by submission. Bondar is the older fighter at 31 compared to Rodriguez's 24. Bondar's time with the UFC could be in jeopardy if he drops a third straight bout, so look for him to be composed and hunt an early submission against the eager Rodriguez.

Prediction: Bondar by round two submission

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