UFC 306 predictions & odds

UFC 306 happens on Sept. 16 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada and it is thrilling already to look forward to. The main event is the bantamweight champion, Sean O'Malley, battling against the No. 1 contender, Merab Dvalishvili in an elite fight with two fighters, in their prime with winning streaks. There is history, as O'Malley became champion by knocking out Dvalishvili's longtime friend and teammate, Aljimain Sterling. With a long history of back-and-forth trash talk, Dvalishvili is fired up to finally be the champion and avenge his friend, Sterling. O'Malley, on the other hand, is excited to try to add another highlight-reel finish over an elite fighter to his fighting resume.

The co-main event will make history as the first UFC women's trilogy will go down involving Alexa Grasso, the flyweight champion, and Valentina Shevchenko, the No. 1 contender and former champion. Grasso won the first fight by fourth-round submission in one of 2023's biggest upsets at UFC 285. Both fighters later fought to a controversial draw at Noche UFC, leading to a trilogy being called for by everyone. After a season of coaching against each other for a season of the Ultimate Fighter, both fighters are ready to end the rivalry, proving there is one better fighter between them. Other fun fights on the card include Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics, and Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van.

The prelims begin at 7:30 PM ET as they stream on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The main card will stream exclusively on ESPN+ PPV at 10 PM ET. Fight odds, of the upcoming fights, are the courtesy of FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-670) vs. Aoriqleng (+430)

Raul Rosas Jr. is 19 years old, making him the youngest prospect in the UFC right now. He is 9-1, with six wins coming by submission and two by knockout. Rosas Jr. is a skillful wrestler, with great back control and submission threats. He also has solid power, despite striking not being his specialty. Aoriqleng is just an average, well-rounded journeyman that will likely end up being an easy win for Rosas Jr's rising career. Rosas Jr. should have not much issue putting on a wrestling masterclass and finding a finish.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. by submission

Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van

This was initially supposed to be a fight between Chairez and Kevin Borjas until Borjas pulled out due to an undisclosed reason. Van is now stepping in on two weeks' notice while making a two-month turnaround after a knockout loss. Chairez is not the biggest power puncher, as he has barely any knockouts while being mostly a grappler. Van's defensive grappling appears good enough to help hold off against Chairez's grappling, so, Van can win striking exchanges. This seems like a good matchup where Van can bounce back from a major loss.

Prediction: Joshua Van by TKO

Yazmin Jauregui (-520) vs. Ketlen Souza (+350)

This is a battle between two up-and-coming strikers in the women's strawweight division. Yazmin Jauregui is a measured, calculated striker, while Ketlen Souza loves throwing many heavy strikes to attempt knockouts. Though Souza throws heavy attacks, she has barely been able to achieve a finish recently. Her last finish was a TKO win outside the UFC in May 2021. Jauregui seems like the better striker who can take advantage of holes of throwing heavy attacks to outstrike her opponent. She can win this fight comfortably on the feet if focused well.

Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui by decision

Manuel Torres (-128) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (+100)

This is an underrated fight at UFC 306 as both fighters have great finishing ability, leading to a fireworks matchup. Manuel Torres and Ignacio Bahomdes seem pretty even on the feet, but, wrestling is where Torres has an advantage. Bahomdes' fight with Ludoveit Klein exposed holes in his grappling game, where he was taken down three times and controlled for most of the fight. If Torres had the positions Klein had on Bahomdes, he could have a submission. Bahomdes also lost a close fight to John Mahdessi, a low-level veteran no longer with the UFC. Torres just seems he can thrive better in a chaotic battle, while taking advantage better if Bahamondes is the one to make a mistake.

Prediction: Manuel Torres by submission

Irene Aldana (-120) vs. Norma Dumont (-106)

This is a striker vs. grappler matchup with important implications for the top five in the women's bantamweight division, as No. 5 ranked Irene Aldana takes on No. 9 ranked Norma Durmont in the featured prelim of the night. Durmont is on a four-fight winning streak with four decision victories, consisting of many takedowns. The wins were against low-level competition, though, such as Danyelle Wolf, who is 1-0 in MMA, and Germaine de Randamie, who is 40 and washed up. Aldana's weakness may be wrestling, but, her defensive wrestling is not all that terrible as she can get up well at times. She will certainly show that there are levels between her and the competition Durmont has faced in the past.

Prediction: Irene Aldana by TKO

Ronaldo Rodríguez (-132) vs. Ode' Osbourne (+104)

This should be an easy matchup to pick. Ronaldo Rodríguez is better everywhere than Ode' Osbourne as he can strike better, wrestle effectively, and is pretty durable. Rodríguez can also be chaotic in his fight style while occasionally being able to switch stances. He is on a six-fight winning streak, while Osbourne is on a two-fight losing streak while having an inconsistent career. Rodríguez had a skillful submission victory in his UFC debut early this year, and, he is skilled enough to continue his hype at the Sphere.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodríguez by submission

Daniel Zellhuber (-250) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+190)

A scrappy matchup between two up-and-comers in the lightweight division will take place. Zellhuber is the favorite in this matchup, with his 8-inch reach advantage likely playing a major part. Though that is concerning, Ribovics possesses the tools to pull an upset. He has a good high guard, which could help him dodge the long punches of Zellhuber. Ribovics possesses powerful punches, especially hooks, as he likes making fights dirty at times while also mixing in some takedowns at times. This may be the major upset of the night.

Prediction: Esteban Ribovis by decision

Diego Lopes (-180) vs. Brian Ortega (+140)

This is one of the most anticipated fights of the night, with No. 3 ranked Ortega and No. 12 ranked Lopes battling it out in the featherweight division. This was initially supposed to be the UFC 303 co-main event, at International Fight Week, in a short-notice fight for both fighters in an attempt to boost the card after the Conor McGregor main event was canceled. Ortega ended up pulling out last minute due to getting ill, and No. 14 ranked Dan Ige ended up stepping in for a catchweight fight. Lopes won a hard-fought unanimous decision as everyone cheered for the two short-notice warriors. To this rebooking date, this remains a competitive fight with similar fighters that both can win.

Both are solid, powerful brawlers with skillful BJJ skills. Lopes is favored for rightful reasons due to Lopes being younger and Ortega having a long career taking damage, which is decreasing his durability. Ortega has only been stopped twice in his career by Max Holloway, in Dec. 2018, due to his eye being swollen shut at the end of the fourth round and Yair Rodriguez, in July 2022, due to his shoulder being dislocated in the first round in a submission attempt. Ortega has never been fully knocked out in his career, but, that may change at UFC 306. On Feb. 24, Ortega was dropped by Rodriguez, in their rematch, for the first time in eight years. Rodriguez is not the biggest power puncher, but, a real power puncher, like Lopes, can take advantage of a declining chin for his victory.

Prediction: Diego Lopes by TKO

Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+110)

This fight is interesting because Shevchenko was getting the better of Grasso in the first two fights until the final results. She was up two rounds to one until Grasso's submission and should have won the rematch if it were not for one bad judge. Shevchenko can finally beat Grasso if she takes better advantage of her takedowns, such as finding more submission attempts and landing better ground strikes. She can also win by continuing her striking success from the rematch, such as establishing her jab and landing hooks around Grasso's boxing defense. Though Shevchenko can win, Grasso just seems to have more opportunity for improvement to finally end the rivalry.

Grasso's defensive wrestling looked better in the rematch but could have used better improvement. If she has improved, Grasso can stop most of Shevchenko's takedowns, which is a major asset to her fight style. Grasso also became the first UFC fighter to knockdown Shevchenko after becoming the first to submit her. In the stand-up department, Grasso has room to improve to land the knockout blows to make a major difference in this fight. Shevchenko is also 36 now, and there is a good chance that may catch up with her at the championship level.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso by TKO

Sean O'Malley (-130) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+102)

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the year. Two fighters, on winning streaks, which possess obvious ways to win. O'Malley can defend the takedowns and knockout Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili can close the distance and impose his high-paced, overwhelming pressure to drown O'Malley to a unanimous decision. Though both have equal chances to win, O'Malley seems more likely to take the victory as he defends his title. His footwork, reach, and distance management all can be tools useful for nullifying Dvalishvili's pressure game.

Dvalishvili has never been knocked out before, but, he has been rocked before badly. If O'Malley was in the positions of Henry Cejudo and Marlon Morales rocking Dvalishvili, it would be a worse position as Dvalishvili would have had his first stoppage loss. In both positions, Dvalishvili has shown susceptibility to a powerful, overhand left. With recent news showing Dvalishvili suffering a cut in camp and allegedly having a staph infection, O'Malley may be well-positioned for another highlight reel finish. This is the matchup tailor-made for O'Malley to possibly perform similarly to McGregor's performance against Eddie Alvarez.

Prediction: Sean O'Malley by TKO