UFC 305 predictions & odds

UFC 305 is getting closer as it officially goes into action on August 17. The UFC will be returning to Perth, Australia as it hosts this fight card at the RAC Arena. The main event will be a high-level, bad-blood-filled title fight between Dricus Du Plessis, the current middleweight champion and No. 2 ranked Israel Adesanya, the former middleweight champion. After retaining his title from his longtime rival, Alex Pereira, Adesanya lost his title yet again in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 against Sean Strickland, who walked him down to a unanimous decision at UFC 293. Strickland then ended up losing the title to Du Plessis at UFC 297 by split decision, in one of the best fights this year. Since Adesanya has rested enough during his long layoff, he and Du Plessis are ready to settle their feud in the Octagon once and for all.

The co-main event will be an important flyweight fight for the top five, which is absolute fireworks in No. 4 ranked Kai Kara-France vs. No. 7 ranked Steve Erceg. Kara-France is looking to bounce from back-to-back losses in major fights. He lost to Brandon Moreno in a rematch, for the interim flyweight title, by third-round stoppage in a fight he was arguably winning. Kara-France then lost to Amir Albazi in his first main event by a split decision, many thought he should have won. While he is coming back from a year-long layoff due to a concussion injury, Erceg is looking to bounce back after taking a short-notice title fight against the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, in a competitive war.

The early prelims will begin at 6:30 PM ET, as they stream on ESPN+. The regular prelims air on ESPN and ESPN+ at 8 PM ET. As for the main card, it airs exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 PM ET. Before the start times of the exciting fights commence, predictions for the biggest fights of UFC 305 will be shared. The odds, subject to change, are the courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Junior Tafa(-130) vs. Valter Walker(+102)

For the featured prelim of UFC 305, heavyweights will collide as Junior Tafa, the brother of Justin Tafa, will battle Valter Walker, the brother of Johnny Walker. This is a striker vs grappler matchup as Tafa loves to knock out fighters while Walker loves to take fighters down, so he can smash them. Tafa's major weakness is mostly just wrestling, while Walker has more than one weakness. Walker lacks striking, striking defense, and cardio. Since he has too many weaknesses, it just seems like that gives Tafa a much better chance to win using his strength of powerful striking. Despite losing, Tafa showed decent takedown defense against Mohammad Usman, who may not be a great fighter overall, but arguably is a much better wrestler than Walker.

Prediction: Junior Tafa by KO/TKO(-130)

Carlos Prates(-320) vs. Li Jingliang(+235)

The opening fight of the PPV main card will be a welterweight clash between Carlos Prates and Li Jingliang in a young prospect vs veteran matchup. Prates is currently on an 11-fight winning streak, with mostly finishes. 14 of his 19 career wins come by knockout, while 3 are by submission. Prates has been competing since 2012 and has been finished a few times since 2017 and before.14 of Jingliang's wins are by finish, including 10 knockouts and four submissions. Jingliang has only been finished by submission two times in his career, as he has never been knocked out due to his durable chin.

Though both fighters are strikers, Prates is more creative as he loves kicks, knees, and rangy, power punches. He should win this fight due to being able to have more tools to get the better of the striking and possibly mix it up, due to Jingliang's weakness in wrestling. Jingliang is 36 now and is coming off a nearly 2-year layoff. He was set to face Michael Chiesa at UFC 287 in April 2023 but pulled out due to a spine injury, resulting in a long layoff. Though Jingliang will likely lose, he will still likely be too tough to put away.

Prediction: Carlos Prates by decision(+310)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(-245) vs. Tai Tuivasa(+186)

This should be a fun fight as long as it lasts, as hard-hitting heavyweights will look to bang it out. No. 12 ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik will look to ascend into the top 10 rankings, while No. 10 ranked Tai Tuivasa will look to bounce back from a major losing streak. Both heavyweights are alike, as 13 of their 14 career wins were won by knockout, while they each only possess one decision victory. Tuivasa has been knocked out by the likes of Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane while Rozenstruik has knockout losses to Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. Tuivasa has been submitted by fighters such as Volkov and Marcin Tybura while Rozenstruik has only been submitted by Jailton Almeida, who is probably the best grappler at heavyweight right now.

These heavyweights are two different types of strikers. Tuivasa is a brawler who relies on his chin and calf kicks to get the better of his opponents when striking. Rozenstruik can brawl occasionally with the right opponent, but he is mostly a measured striker who likes to pick the right shots at the right time. Tuivasa does not seem as motivated anymore to win fights, especially since he has recently been brutalized by the top heavyweight contenders. Since he is a better striker and Tuivasa has taken too much damage at this point in his career, Rozenstruik should be the favorite to win and get a knockout.

Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO(-135)

Mateusz Gamrot(-340) vs. Dan Hooker(+250)

A major showdown in the lightweight division will occur as No. 5 ranked Mateusz Gamrot will fight No. 11 ranked Dan Hooker. This fight not only has Fight of the Night potential, but this fight singly handily boosted UFC 305. Hooker was looking to fight anyone at UFC 305 as his teammate, Adesanya, was vocal to the UFC bosses about wanting Hooker to get a fight, so this card could have more star power. Luckily, the major wish got granted in a high ranked opponent. On paper, Gamrot should easily out wrestle Hooker, but this fight may be closer than many think.

This is yet another grappler vs. striker matchup as Gamrot loves to put high wrestling paces on all opponents while Hooker loves outpointing fighters and making fights dirty, at the same time. Though both lack striking defense, Gamrot has good recovery while Hooker has better durability overall. Gamrot gets dropped or rocked in nearly every fight, while it is difficult to rock or drop Hooker unless a fighter is insanely powerful like Michael Chandler. Though he is an underdog, Hooker has a real shot to legitimately win this fight. He possesses good, offensive knees, which can hurt Gamrot significantly, and his takedown defense has improved over the years. While the last fighter to consistently outwrestle Hooker was Jason Knight, who had four successful takedowns in November 2016, Hooker has only been taken down one to two times on average since then.

If Hooker can defend against Gamrot's wrestling, he can proceed to make the fight dirty and start his own pace in the stand-up. That could lead to a stoppage or a unanimous decision victory. Gamrot can be knocked out, though he has never been finished once in his career. Hooker can dig deep when he has to, as he survived a head kick and a broken arm to win an intense war with Jalin Turner, at UFC 290 in July 2023. Though the layoff due to a broken arm is concerning, this risky pick can be worth picking for an upset.

Prediction: Dan Hooker by decision(+500)

Steve Erceg(-180) vs. Kai Kara-France(+140)

Flyweights are exciting most of the time, and this co-main event should deliver. Despite being lower ranked, Erceg is better everywhere than Kara-France. Erceg is more durable, more creative in striking, and his wrestling is levels above Kara-France. Erceg can knock out Kara-France or submit him if he'd like to. While he does not offensively wrestle, all Kara-France has in the stand-up are powerful overhands. This fight could provide serious competition against Gamrot vs Hooker for the Fight of the Night bonus.

Prediction: Steve Erceg by decision(+130)

Israel Adesanya(-128) vs. Dricus du Plessis(+100)

Finally, this is one of the year's best main events, in terms of skill and beef. This is a close fight as both have solid paths to victory. Adesanya's primary weaknesses are wrestling and getting pressured by someone defensibly responsible. Du Plessis' primary weakness is mostly just being too reckless at times, while his chin is open to counterpunches. The strengths of Adesanya include counter punching, various kicks, and establishing range. Du Plessis, on the other hand, has strong wrestling, powerful blitz attacks, pace, and he even has good counter punching himself.

Both fighters are durable while possessing solid enough power to shut anybody's lights off. Du Plessis seems like a better pick because he surprises people when being an underdog against top fighters and Adesanya's fight style possibly being tailor-made for him. Adesanya is content fighting off the back foot most of the time, while du Plessis thrives when he pressures his opponents. Du Plessis is Adesanya's first opponent with a real submission threat, and Adesanya has made mistakes in the past, giving his back to low-level grapplers such as Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori. If du Plessis had any of the grappling positions Whittaker or Vettori had on Adesanya, he could have found a submission or landed vicious ground strikes. Though wrestling is du Plessis's best bet to win, he can win on the feet too.

If du Plessis is going to beat Adesanya on the feet, he will have to take away a major asset to his game that other opponents, who beat him, did. The asset is the calf kicks of Adesanya, which must be checked. Du Plessis' team can be good at game planning, and they could prepare for that. If he can pressure Adesanya against the cage while checking calf kicks, du Plessis can set up blitz attacks and land solid, straight shots to find a knockout. Du Plessis also has a good high guard, which can help him slip and block the various attacks from Adesanya. In a creative pick, du Plessis will use his stand-up success to set up his ground success for a finish over Adesanya.

Prediction: Dricus du Plessis by submission(+550)