UFC 304 predictions & odds

The UFC will return to Manchester, England, on July 27 for the first time since October 2016 for UFC 304, headlined by Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad for the UFC welterweight championship. This rematch will be taking place at the newly built Co-op Live arena for the venue's first-ever sporting event in its history. A much-anticipated bout between the two fighters has been brewing since an eye poke by Edwards that ultimately ended their first fight at the UFC APEX in March 2021.

With a lot of animosity built up over the years between the two, Edwards and Muhammad finally get to step into the cage against one another and put their unbeaten streaks to the test. Edwards, who is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak, faces Muhammad's 9-fight unbeaten streak that surely will have fans exited from the opening bell.

In the co-main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes square off for the interim heavyweight championship in another highly anticipated rematch. The two squared off against each other in July of 2022, and that fight was over before it even had gotten started due to a knee injury suffered by Aspinall after he threw a leg kick to Blaydes within the first 15 seconds.

Unlike the main event, Aspinall and Blaydes have been more than respectful to one another and seem to be taking the approach of less talking and more doing leading up to UFC 304. Do not blink when this fight comes across your television screen because once again this fight could be over before you know it.

For those of us watching in the United States, the first fight of the early prelims is scheduled to start at 5:15 p.m. ET / 2:15 p.m. PT streaming on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The prelims will begin at 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT on ESPN+ as well as ESPN2. The main card will begin at 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT exclusively on ESPN+ PPV.

Before the fights begin, check out our predictions for each fight on the UFC 304 main card.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Arnold Allen (-250) vs Giga Chikadze (+190)

Fans are in for what seemingly enough will be a 15-minute war between two top 10 featherweights to open up the main card at UFC 304. Both Allen and Chikadze have never been finished inside the Octagon in their UFC careers, and all signs point to that trend continuing. 61 percent of their wins combined have gone the full distance. You may look at Allen's most recent fights and see that he is on a two-fight losing streak, but diving deeper into the losses, you will notice they were against two of the best featherweights in the division, Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. Taking all things into consideration, Allen is favored rightfully so and has a clear path to victory if he is capable of getting Chikadze to the mat.

Prediction: Arnold Allen by decision (+100)

Christian Leroy Duncan (-154) vs Gregory Rodrigues (+120)

A newly added fight to the main card of UFC 304 should be fun for as long as it lasts between Leroy Duncan and Rodrigues. These two have a combined finish rate of 88 percent inside the UFC, and regardless of who wins on July 27, that number will increase by the end of the night. There will be no shortage of action in this fight, and it will come down to who can land the straighter punches first. The odds are a little bit wider than one would think but come fight time, this line could be closer to a coin flip pick 'em. The value is on Rodrigues at plus money, and you should get your bets in sooner rather than later.

Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO in round 2 (+1500)

King Green (-122) vs Paddy Pimblett (-104)

The fight that most fans would consider the people's main event with all the banter that has gone back and forth between Green and Pimblett has everyone excited. This will most definitely be Pimblett's biggest test of his career, and he has the opportunity to do it in front of his home crowd. Green will not just lie over and hand a victory over to Pimblett, but how electric would it be to see Pimblett get the job done in spectacular fashion in England? Father Time is the only undefeated one in this game, and with an eight-year age difference, Pimblett is the right move in the fight.

Prediction: Paddy Pimblet by KO/TKO (+650)

Tom Aspinall (-440) vs Curtis Blaydes (+310)

This line has gone way out of hand, but the correct fighter is favored in this one. The first time these two fought, Aspinall was a -140 favorite, whereas Blaydes was a +120 underdog. Since their last fight, Aspinall has secured an interim title, and Blaydes has lost to the man that Aspinall beat for interim gold. The odds of this fight have made Aspinall an untouchable bet on the money line, so you will have to find value elsewhere. This may seem like a bit of a wild card to throw at you, but two fighters who are scary on the feet can sometimes neautralize that threat, and with Aspinall being a four to one favorite on the moneyline lets have some fun and sweat out a longshot in the co-main event of UFC 304.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall by decision (+1300)

Leon Edwards (-265) vs Belal Muhammad (+200)

With the way things ended in the first fight between Edwards and Muhammad, fans are eager to see how this one will play out a second time around. Most people are aware of the eye poke that ended the first fight, but most don’t recall the fact that Edwards won the first round of the first fight decisively on all three judges scorecards. This is your typical high-level striker versus high-level grappler, but who will come out on top? You can only make so much of the first fight because of how much each of these fighters have grown since the last time they met.

The matchup is intriguing stylistically because of how dynamic of a striker Edwards is, and also the fact that he has faced two high-level wrestlers back to back in Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington who are arguably better wrestlers than Muhammad. Another factor to take into consideration is the style clashes of Edwards being southpaw and Muhammad being an orthodox. This will leave a lot of openings for Edwards to exploit in the kicking game to the body and head. Will Edwards be able to keep Muhammad at distance like he did in the first fight? Or will Muhammad be able to do something that neither Usman or Covington were able to accomplish? You can make a case for either fighter in a striker vs grappler matchup, but you have to side with the champion in this one. In order to gain some value because Edwards is definitely capable we will take him by KO/TKO.

Prediction: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO (+310)