UFC 303 predictions & odds

Here's how we think each of the fights at UFC 303 will play out on June 29.
Apr 13, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alex Pereira celebrates during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 13, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alex Pereira celebrates during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Conor McGregor will no longer be fighting in June but UFC 303 will move on with Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka headlining International Fight Week. Both men will be making relatively quick turnarounds after picking up knockout wins at UFC 300.

The story of how the main event came together has been retold over the last couple of weeks but the two light heavyweight stalwarts will rematch less than one year after initially competing for the vacant title at UFC 295. Much like their first fight, Pereira — this time as the defending champion — will likely enter the fight as a slight favorite.

In total, 13 fights will be featured on the 2024 International Fight Week event with five fighters competing on roughly two weeks of preparation. Aside from the main event, Brian Ortega, Diego Lopes and Anthony Smith were all also brought in at the last minute to keep the card intact.

Before the pay-per-view card begins, view our projections for every fight of UFC 303.

Ricky Simón (-225) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+185) prediction

Oliveira's UFC debut is one that will be replayed over and over for the rest of his career but the step up in competition from Bernado Sopaj to Ricky Simón is significant. Oliveira struggled with the wrestling of Sopaj — who stepped in on extremely short notice — in that fight before his viral flying knee finish. Oliveira can knock out anybody in this division but his striking is too wild for someone as seasoned as Simón.

Prediction: Simón by decision

Rei Tsuruya (-395) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+310) prediction

The odds may be a little wide, but Tsuruya should enter the UFC with a bang. Hernandez has often struggled with superior wrestlers and grapplers and is the case of a fighter who is good as the "hammer" but not so much as the "nail." Once this fight hits the ground, Tsuruya should be the more technical grappler and Hernandez does not have the striking to threaten him on the feet.

Prediction: Tsuruya by KO/TKO in round three

Andrei Arlovski (+225) vs. Martin Buday (-278) prediction

After getting thoroughly run through by Shamil Gaziev, this should be a bounce-back for Buday against the oldest fighter on the UFC roster who is riding a three-fight losing streak. It will not be exciting, but Arlovski has lost all of the speed and power he once had at his advanced age and has not won by knockout since 2015. The way to beat the cardio-based Buday is by overwhelming him with offense, something Arlovski is not physically capable of anymore.

Prediction: Buday by decision

Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+164) vs. Gillian Robertson (-198) prediction

In her last seven fights, Waterson has won just once — a controversial split decision at that — and could arguably be on a seven-fight losing streak. Since dropping down to strawweight, Robertson has lost just once to the 11th-ranked fighter in the division, Tabatha Ricci. Despite her wealth of high-level experience, Robertson is still just 29. The GOAT Shed team is on fire and will pick up another one on June 29.

Prediction: Robertson by submission in round two

Payton Talbott (-1050) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+675) prediction

Even International Fight Week needs a set-up fight here and there for a rising prospect and in 2024, it will be Talbott. The 25-year-old's last win over Cameron Saaiman is a better win than this would be. As the only French fighter to lose at UFC France in September 2023, Ghemmouri has looked sharp in moments on the regional scene but has simply not shown UFC-level skills.

Prediction: Talbott by KO/TKO in round two

Charles Jourdain (-142) vs. Jean Silva (+120) prediction

For whatever reason, Jourdain continues to be a favorite despite being just 6-6-1 in the UFC and will again own that position against one of the best prospects in the division. Silva, a chaotic but calculated pressure fighter, has the style to potentially give Jourdain troubles the same way that Andre Fili, Nathaniel Wood and Julian Erosa previously have. Jourdain has also showed a deficiency in his defensive wrestling if he cannot immediately wrap up a guillotine choke, something Silva will have in his back pocket.

Prediction: Silva by decision

Cub Swanson (+160) vs. Andre Fili (-192) prediction

Now 40 years old, Swanson's only convincing win in the past three years has been against fellow veteran Darren Elkins. In his last fight, Swanson got picked apart by the lankier Hakeem Dawodu and showed signs of his age. Fili will have a similar reach advantage in this matchup and though alternating wins and losses since 2020, he has only fallen short against elite fighters. Swanson is no longer in that category.

Prediction: Fili by KO/TKO in round three

Joe Pyfer (-258) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+210) prediction

Expect Pyfer to come into this fight with a vengeance. He lost some of his momentum with his loss in February but has never dropped two straight in his career and Barriault does not have a win over a fighter with a winning record in the UFC. Barriault excels at weaponizing his cardio but has been prone to getting hit at times. Pyfer is arguably the most powerful fighter he will face and the last knockout artist Barriault fought knocked him out in 16 seconds.

Prediction: Pyfer by KO/TKO in round one

Ian Machado Garry (--130) vs. Michael Page (+110) prediction

As evidenced in his fight with Kevin Holland, Page's unorthodox karate-based style can work in the UFC. He may be 37 but has still only lost twice in his career; once by one-punch knockout and once by getting out-wrestled. Garry has shown to have neither of the two styles proven to work against Page. Like Holland, Garry prefers to keep his distance and pick his shots from the outside, something that has rarely worked against Page. The undefeated record ends at UFC 303.

Prediction: Page by decision

Mayra Bueno Silva (-205) vs. Macy Chiasson (+170) prediction

Silva is expectedly the favorite after recently fighting for the vacant title but if she cannot get a submission early, she has shown to have inconsistent cardio in later rounds. Chiasson has only been submitted once in her career, a guillotine choke from the current champion. Other than that fight, Chiasson has struggled with strikers in her career and has typically handled the grappling-based style Silva presents.

Prediction: Chiasson by decision

Anthony Smith (+120) vs. Roman Dolidze (-142) prediction

While neither has looked great of late and Dolidze is moving up a division, he has competed and had success at light heavyweight in the past. It is hard to predict which version of either fighter will show up but Smith has not won a fight by decision since his UFC debut and Dolidze has never been finished in his career. Even at light heavyweight, Dolidze figures to give Smith trouble with his power and elite grappling skills as a former ADCC champion.

Prediction: Dolidze by  KO/TKO in round two

Brian Ortega (+112) vs. Diego Lopes (-142) prediction

Following his first win in nearly four years, Ortega is making a bold move by accepting this fight that does not bode well for him on paper. Despite his grappling prowess, Lopes has struggled in the UFC so far against strong wrestlers who could control him from top position. Ortega has that ability but has completed just 27 percent of his attempted takedowns in the UFC.

Against fighters who could match his grappling, Ortega has often struggled. He needed a last-minute submission to pull off a comeback win over Renato Moicano and similarly struggled with Diego Brandao before submitting him as well. Ortega has out-struck just two opponents in the UFC — Chan Sung Jung and Thiago Tavares — whilst Lopes' striking has improved tremendously to the point of becoming the first fighter to knock out Sodiq Yusuff in the UFC.

Prediction: Lopes by decision

Alex Pereira (-162) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+136) prediction

While Prochazka reportedly entered the last matchup injured, Pereira will be fighting in their rematch with broken toes. The short-notice nature of this fight and the quick turnaround appear to favor Prochazka, who has shown enthusiasm to this opportunity while the champion has been quoted saying he wants to take a break after this fight, win or lose.

Prochazka showed enough in the first fight to potentially find a finish through the guard of the former GLORY Kickboxing world champion but Pereira's defense improved as the fight went on. His power is always present as well and the leg kicks are still the same threat that they were the at UFC 295. Prochazka continues to get whipped by leg kicks and was nearly finished with that attack by Aleksandar Rakic before earning a comeback knockout win.

Prediction: Pereira by KO/TKO in round four

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. Odds courtesy of DraftKings.