UFC 301 predictions & odds: Will Steve Erceg shock the world and become the new UFC flyweight champion?

Alexandre Pantoja (-198) vs. Steve Erceg (+164) prediction

The UFC is promoting this fight as if Erceg is a big knockout artist but the Aussie has actually won half of his 12 career wins by submission. Erceg's last performance was a big knockout of Matt Schnell, but it was just the second knockout of his career and the fifth time Schnell had been knocked down since 2019. Erceg is a crisp boxer who will be longer than the champion but Pantoja has only been knocked down once in his career by former champion Deiveson Figueiredo.

While Erceg is an accomplished submission artist, Pantoja may be the best grappler in flyweight history, making it hard to see where Erceg can exceed. The path to victory for Erceg would seem to be using his size advantage to wrestle, as Pantoja has been taken down two or more times in each of his five losses. Erceg, however, has never faced a grappler on Pantoja's level, who just showed his ability to deal with a bigger grappler in his last title defense. Experience matters and this stage may be too much too soon for Erceg, who will be enemy no. 1 in Brazil throughout fight week.

Prediction: Pantoja by decision

All odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.