UFC 301 predictions & odds: Will Steve Erceg shock the world and become the new UFC flyweight champion?
By Jaren Kawada
Vitor Petrino (-520) vs. Anthony Smith (+390) prediction
Smith will not be bothered by the crowd on fight night but Petrino is one of the worst matchups he can get in the division. Petrino is far from a finished product but where he struggles are not Smith's strengths at this point in his career. Smith has struggled with powerful strikers at this point in his career which fits Petrino's profile and has the best chance to succeed with his grappling but has completed just 26 percent of his takedown attempts in his UFC career compared to Petrino's 71 percent takedown defense. Of the six times Petrino has been taken down in the Octagon, he has reversed the position five times.
Prediction: Petrino by KO/TKO in round three
Jonathan Martinez (-162) vs. Jose Aldo (+136) prediction
With the way Aldo is returning to the UFC on this card, it feels as if the front office lured him out of retirement with a big payday to add name value, making it hard to tell where he truly is in his fighting career. But the facts are that Aldo, now 37, has not had an MMA fight in 21 months and is attempting to come back against a top-15 opponent on a six-fight win streak. The heart wants to pick Aldo, but MMA is an unforgiving sport and though Aldo is elite at defending leg kicks, Martinez's best weapon, the 30-year-old should still be able to out-pace the former champion across three rounds.