UFC 301 predictions & odds: Will Steve Erceg shock the world and become the new UFC flyweight champion?

A complete breakdown of every fight on UFC 301 complete with a preview and a prediction.
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg / UFC
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Jack Shore (+142) vs. Joanderson Brito (-166) prediction

The stats say this fight will be between two grapplers but neither fighter will hesitate to strike, as evidenced by some of their recent performances. Should Shore lean on his wrestling, he may find success, given the way the first two rounds of Brito's last fight played out before he found a submission to win the fight. However, Shore has never fought in enemy territory before and faces arguably the most dangerous finisher of his career both on the feet and in grappling exchanges.

Prediction: Brito by submission in round two

Paul Craig (+400) vs. Caio Borralho (-535) prediction

Despite the odds being as wide as they are, this fight is likely much closer. Neither fighter is very comfortable on the feet and though Borralho loves to wrestle, placing Craig on his back is exactly where he wants to be. But now 36 years old, Craig is 1-3 in his last four fights and Borralho did record a knockdown in his last fight, increasing his confidence in that area against a pure grappling specialist. Borralho will have to be careful in top position but barring a mental mistake, this should be his fight to lose with the crowd behind him.

Prediction: Borralho by decision

Michel Pereira (-535) vs. Ihor Potieria (+400) prediction

Although Potieria left Brazil with a knockout win the last time he fought in the country, the result will not be the same the second time around. The matchmaking is a little puzzling given Pereira has not lost legitimately since 2019 and is taking a considerable step back in competition, and this should be a showcase for the fan-favorite Capoeira striker. Potieria has power and can put anybody out, especially at middleweight, but his defensive striking significantly holds him back. Pereira, meanwhile, has surprisingly adept defensive numbers with a 58 percent striking defense and 91 percent takedown defense.

Prediction: Pereira by KO/TKO in round one