UFC 301 predictions & odds: Will Steve Erceg shock the world and become the new UFC flyweight champion?
By Jaren Kawada
Jean Silva (-175) vs. William Gomis (+145) prediction
It is hard to doubt Silva in his home country after the UFC debut he had but Gomis is a difficult test for rising prospects. Fighting behind his extremely defensive style, Gomis rarely gets hit and boasts an incredible 75 percent striking defense. With two split or majority decision wins in the UFC, Gomis is a master at slowing fights down and making them sloppy, something that can trouble an explosive and fast-paced striker like Silva.
Prediction: Gomis by decision
Elves Brenner (+215) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-265) prediction
Orolbai dominated Uros Medic in his short-notice debut with a pure wrestling game plan but is a striker at heart and should be able to show his full arsenal in his second outing given Brenner's grappling credentials. Though he had an impressive 2023, Brenner has slightly over-achieved to this point with two massive upset wins but will finally be outmatched against a guy who truly has championship potential. Both fighters own high finishing rates but neither have ever been finished themselves, suggesting they will go the full 15 minutes.
Prediction: Orolbai by decision
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-425) prediction
Kowalkiewicz's late-career surge will likely meet its end at UFC 301 against Lucindo, who seems to be the real deal. Although she is just 22 years old, Lucindo is in her seventh year as a professional fighter and proved her worth at the highest level with a dominant performance over Polyana Viana at UFC Vegas 78. Although Kowalkiewicz has won four straight, most of her opponents have been primarily grapplers, making Lucindo the best striker she has fought since Yan Xiaonan, to whom she allowed 93 significant strikes.