UFC 294: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction
the man known as ”Borz” stake his claim as the future of the 185 pound division?
By Josh Betar
UFC PPV action is back in full force on Saturday, Oct. 21, as UFC 294 hits mixed martial arts center stage, from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. An event that has shaped up to be one of the most talked about events in the history of the sport, with both the main and co-main event being altered 11 and nine days out, respectively.
The co-main event features one of the most exciting and interesting matchups of the year as undefeated phenom, Khamzat Chimaev (12-0) makes his middleweight return against the former welterweight king, Kamaru Usman (20-3). Stakes for this fight have risen since the fight announcement with UFC CEO Dana White confirming that the winner will be receiving the next shot at Sean Strickland’s middleweight title.
It’s a fight that many fans have wanted to see but never thought would actually come to fruition with Khamzat Chimaev leaving the welterweight division behind this year and moving up to middleweight to chase undisputed gold. He was set to make his middleweight return at UFC 294 against No. 6 ranked Paulo Costa until a staph infection ruled Costa out of the fight. Left without an opponent, former UFC welterweight champion Usman, who some consider the greatest welterweight of all time, stepped up to the plate to accept on nine days' notice.
Speaking in an interview with TMZ Sports, the former welterweight champion gave his thoughts on the exciting matchup with Chimaev.
“He’s definitely talented. That’s why there’s a lot of excitement about it because you know we see these guys come in, a lot of different guys and you just see something special about them. We all know it, I know it, he knows, everyone knows it. He’s very skilled, he’s strong, he’s big, he’s fast, he can wrestle, he can grapple, he can strike. He has everything, but so do I.”
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev preview
Talks about this fight have gone on for the better part of two years. While a dominant Usman reigned over the welterweight division seemingly running out of challengers to face, the fans began to wonder what a fight between Usman and Chimaev would look like. Usman was asked about the possibility of facing Chimaev in November 2021 at the UFC 268 media day.
Usman said, “As far as me [fighting him], you know I’m in a point in life to where I understand how much this takes from you. I’ve been nine weeks now away from my daughter, and FaceTime does help, but it doesn’t do it justice, as far as being there each and every day. So obviously I don’t know how much longer I’m willing to do this. They have to make sense for me now. If he’s able to get there, then we’ll talk about it at that point.”
However, talks have grown stronger this year with both Usman and Chimaev making remarks back in July 2023, about a potential fight. Usman was asked about a fight with Chimaev during the UFC 290 guest fighter interview and responded by saying, “Why would they approach me for 185? He’s ranked – what, No. 3, right, isn’t he? In what division? Welterweight," Usman responded to the comment by saying, "If you want to fight, let’s fight.”
Chimaev later responded to Usman on X saying, “Kamaru Usman, why are you talking about me?”. You said you want to fight 84 kgs (middleweight). The weight no problem for you. You are the boogeyman but I am the wolf. Come up.”
However, the collision course that Usman and Chimaev have been on to get here looks vastly different. 36-year-old Usman is coming off his second consecutive loss to welterweight champion, Leon Edwards. Usman reigned over the welterweight division for nearly four years after winning the title by defeating Tyron Woodley at UFC 235.
Multiple title defenses over Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, and Gilbert Burns have earned him the title as one of the greatest welterweights of all time. His reign ended when he was defeated at UFC 278 by Leon Edwards who won by a vicious head kick late in round 5. Usman would go on to lose the subsequent rematch at UFC 286 earlier this year in London.
For 29-year-old Chimaev however, this will be the first time he’ll be competing inside the UFC’s octagon for 2023. Chimaev’s run inside the octagon thus far has been nothing short of impressive. After dismantling the likes of Rhys McKee, Gerald Meerschaert, and Li Jingliang, he would go on to secure a unanimous decision win in a three-round war against former title challenger and No, 3 ranked welterweight Gilbert Burns, back at UFC 273.
His last outing came against UFC welterweight and fan favorite Kevin Holland back at
UFC 279 in September 2022. After missing the 170 pounds weight limit for his original opponent Nate Diaz, and his fight with Holland moving to a catch weight, It was announced that this would be Chimaev’s last fight in the UFC’s welterweight division as he would be making his way to middleweight.
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction
This fight is definitely a hard fight to call. First of all, let's look at Usman. He is now 36 years old, moving up to middleweight for the first time, and has serious knee injuries dating back some years. He has a lot of wear and tear on his body from the immense amount of training and the grueling 5 round championship bouts over the years. However, this fight will be the first three-round scheduled fight for Usman since May 2018 and the first fight since November 2018 that will not have a championship up for grabs.
When we look at Chimaev, he is making his first walk to the UFC’s octagon in over 400 days. A new weight class for Chimaev and although incredibly well-rounded in every aspect of the fight game, we need to remember that Chimaev has been preparing for a completely different fighter in Paulo Costa. Costa is renowned for his striking prowess and pressure-heavy style. Usman is a patient, calculated well-rounded fighter who has defeated former foes in devastating fashion, not to mention is considered one of the best wrestlers in mixed martial arts today with one of the greatest IQs the sport has seen.
Considering a lot of the factors we’ve looked at, Usman should have a slight edge in this bout. Usman’s experience, championship mentality, and overall skillset able to match Chimaev in every exchange. Chimaev’s lack of consistent experience with high-quality opponents in his short career coming into play in this fight. Usman will need to play to his strengths and use his IQ, experience, and patience to frustrate Chimaev which will lead to openings on the feet and in the grappling exchanges.
We’ll probably see Usman make his return to the win column, silencing doubters, silencing the betting lines, and move on to face Strickland for the UFC middleweight championship.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman via split decision
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