UFC 288: 1 best and worst bet of the night
The best and worst bet you can make for UFC 288.
The UFC's monthly pay-per-view is right around the corner and what a card it is shaping up to be. This Saturday, May 6, live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, UFC 288 hosts a massive bantamweight championship fight.
Long Island native and current 135-pound champion Aljamain Sterling (22-3) will aim to make his third title defense against the returning former double champion Henry Cejudo (16-2) in a fight that can dictate the legacy of whoever comes out on top.
The co-main event was supposed to be a clash between Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush before the former suffered an injury. Thankfully, the always game Gilbert Burns (22-5) was willing to step in on short notice against another absolute dog in Belal Muhammad (22-3) in what surely is a number 1 contender's fight for the welterweight title.
This card doesn't need more to be intriguing than it already is but it is always a little more fun to put some money on the line. If you have no favorite to pick, putting a small bet on a fighter is enough to make you their number 1 fan for the night, especially if they earn you some good returns. Without further ado, here is the best and worst bet you can make for UFC 288.
*All odds are from DraftKings.com.
Best bet: Picking Aljamain Sterling to retain
It has to be said that in terms of odds, UFC 288 has some of the closest we have seen in recent memory. There are no huge favorites or underdogs that look like lock ins to make any gambler some good money.
You could look at Rafael Estevam (11-0), who is making his UFC debut against Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8), a man who is 1-6 in his UFC career. However, at -180, it seems that bookies are well aware that Estevam will walk away as the winner and continue his undefeated streak.
Instead, let's look at the massive main event. It's the fight we're all looking forward to so why not put some money on it to make it extra spicy. Picking Henry Cejudo to win might have been an attractive pick when he was a + money underdog, however, the line has shifted and he is now the favorite to win at -115.
Pick Sterling to retain. At -105, the return isn't huge but we're talking about a guy who's had three championship fights in the space of 13 months against a man making his return to competition for the first time in THREE YEARS.
Cejudo might be one of the greatest of all time and people will point to the time when George St. Pierre returned to win middleweight gold after a four-year layoff. You don't even have to go that far back as we can look at the return of Jon Jones, who won the heavyweight title in March of 2023 after a long period of inactivity. Let's be honest though, St. Pierre and Jones are neck-and-neck in the G.O.A.T race and faced relatively easier competition than Cejudo will.
The bantamweight champion might have his haters for the manner in which he conducts himself or even how his title reign has gone but make no mistake, he's one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world who has been improving massively for the last three years whilst Cejudo was at home. Putting money on the champ is smart, especially considering he is not listed as the huge favorite that he should be.
Worst bet: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns to be under 2.5 or 3.5 rounds
Yes, technically two bets here are highlighted as the worst possible ones for the evening but it is a bet that you must stay away from at all costs. When the UFC announced that their highly anticipated co-main event was scrapped due to injury to Charles Oliveira, MMA fans around the world rejoiced when Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad agreed to step in on short notice to save the rest of the card.
That in itself was shocking considering that Burns competed less than a month ago against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 287. Couple it with the fact that Muhammad has just finished fasting due to Ramadan and was likely prepping to compete down the year, it blew even more people's mind when this fight was announced as a five round co-main event and not the three we are accustomed to.
There's clearly a reason behind this. Both men want to prove that they deserve the next shot at Leon Edwards over Colby Covington and would like to prove themselves over a 25 minute fight. A quick knockout or submission might be more flashy but it could still lead to being jumped by Covington in the title picture.
A dominant unanimous decision win for either men all but guarantees the next shot at the champion. While you can never truly predict that one fighter doesn't go to sleep inside the distance, it is very likely that this fight goes the full 25 minutes.
With the under 2.5 round bet at +205 and the under 3.5 round bet at +145, they are both intriguing bets to make, especially considering the context above. Yet, it is difficult to envision a fight that doesn't go to the distance. In fact, the best advice is probably to stay away from this fight in general, there are too many uncertainties surrounding it to make it a sure pick.
*All the betting advice given is not to be taken too seriously. We all have the same research tools and the fight game is extremely unpredictable. Do not take these bets are sure winners, you have been warned. If you or someone close to you suffers from a gambling addiction, please call 1-800-GAMBLER for help.
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