Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes preview and prediction

UFC 304 is an exciting card that is happening in Manchester, England on July 27. The main event is, of course, Leon Edwards defending his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad. The co-main event, however, is a heavyweight bout where the interim champion is defending his belt, which is rare for an interim champion to do. Tom Aspinall, the interim heavyweight champion, and No. 4 ranked Curtis Blaydes will be fighting in the co-main event. This is a special situation due to Jon Jones, the undisputed heavyweight champion, being injured until the end of 2024 and wanting his likely retirement fight to be against Stipe Miocic. Aspinall wanted to be active and is choosing to defend his interim title in a rematch of a fight that had an anti-climatic ending.

Aspinall and Blaydes first fought in July 2022 as the main event of a London fight night. Aspinall was on an eight-fight winning streak, while Blaydes was coming off two solid wins. In a fight that would have shown which fighter is more championship material, Aspinall blew his knee out 15 seconds into the first round. In April 2023, Blaydes went on to fight another top-five contender, Sergei Pavlovich, who stopped him in the first round. Aspinall took a year to fully heal and came back stronger, getting first-round knockouts over Marcin Tybura in July 2023 and Pavlovich in November 2023. Blaydes took a year off after his stoppage loss and returned in March 2024, derailing a hype train in Jailton Almeida by getting a second-round knockout.

Aspinall is a well-rounded prospect whose background before MMA consisted of fundamentals such as boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He has never seen a third round once in his decade of competing in MMA. He has two real losses by submission and disqualification in 2015 and 2016, leading to massive improvements since then. If you count out the injury loss to Blaydes, Aspinall has been on a 10-fight winning streak, with all finishes. He has great calf kicks, brilliant footwork, skilled striking, and strong wrestling. Some of Aspinall's major wins were against Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, Tybura, and Serghei Spivac.

The rematch between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes is two years in the making

Blaydes' background was primarily in just wrestling, but that became his biggest strength in starting his MMA career a decade ago. Unlike Aspinall, Blaydes has seen a third round quite a few times and only a fifth round once. The only four losses in Blaydes' career have come by knockouts to some of the heavyweight division's hardest hitters, including Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, and Pavlovich. His career can be inconsistent when he is winning a few times but loses when he gets to a title eliminator. Blaydes has good punching power, great cardio, well-timed takedowns, and vicious ground striking. The biggest wins of his career are against Almeida, Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos, and Volkov.

Aspinall's best path to victory is to take out Blaydes early. He has not seen a third round in his career and for now, it is best if it remains that way, given his well-conditioned opponent. He can take out Blaydes early by taking him down and submitting him, as Blaydes was taken down multiple times by Almeida before finding the knockout. Aspinall can also knock Blaydes out on the feet, as he possesses great power in the ranks of the heavyweights who knocked out Blaydes in the past. He moves like a middleweight with his footwork, and he must use that to make it hard for Blaydes to shoot takedowns on him. If Blaydes does take him down, Aspinall must use his BJJ to get back up to his feet as soon as he can to avoid dangerous ground strikes.

If Blaydes is going to beat Aspinall, he will have to take him into deep waters, which Aspinall has not seen before and where Blaydes has thrived in the past. To achieve that, he has to weather an early storm in the first two rounds, meaning he has to be defensively responsible on the feet and stop any possible takedown attempts, if any. If he is smart and calculated, Blaydes can get the better of striking exchanges, as Aspinall has a habit of leaving his chin in the air at times. Going to the ground is Blaydes' greatest bet to win if he can track Aspinall's fast movement and get his well-timed takedowns on point. Keeping Aspinall down will be another challenge due to his skilled BJJ, as Blaydes must avoid submission attempts and use his strength to keep him down to land his famous ground elbows.

Though Blaydes is highly skilled in giving many heavyweights problems, he always falls short in the major title eliminator bouts. In those fights, it is the major power punchers that give him trouble in finally fighting for an undisputed title. Aspinall's footwork will be too good for him, as will his head movement and chin, which is solid enough to hold up because he took a power punch good from Pavlovich, in his last fight. Watching both of their past fights, it can be seen that anything Blaydes can do, Aspinall can do better.

Prediction: Aspinall via first-round knockout.