PFL 3: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Shane Burgos predictions & odds
Previewing & predicting every PFL 3 main card fight.
The PFL wraps up the first round of the new season this Friday, April 14, live from The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada. This time around, PFL 3 invites the welterweights and lightweights for their first chance to gain some crucial points in the standings, and be one step closer to the one million dollar prize.
Both of last year's champions will be looking to start the new campaign with three points, although neither of them will have it easy as they look to reclaim the PFL title come the end of the season. This card, much like PFL 1 and 2, sees a mix of high profile free agent acquisitions meet with PFL veterans that is sure to intrigue all MMA fans come this Friday.
Without further ado, here are the predictions and odds for every main card fight from PFL 3. Be aware that the main card begins before the prelims due to the broadcast schedule!
*All odds are from Draftkings.com.
Predictions & odds for PFL 3: Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Shane Burgos
Magomed Umalatov (-380) vs. Dilano Taylor (+310)
This is a matchup that may look like just another regular season fight, however, there is a little added spice to this one. Magomed Umalatov (12-0) was set to compete against Rory MacDonald in last year's welterweight semi-final before withdrawing. His replacement was non-other than the man he is set to face this Friday, Dilano Taylor (10-3).
Nobody gave Taylor much of a chance against the former UFC title challenger and yet, he found a way to knock MacDonald out in the very first round to advance to the finale. He ultimately came up short to Sabidou Sy but, even if the odds suggest Umalatov, you cannot count Taylor out.
This is not an easy bout for either men and I'd be surprised if it goes the distance. Umalatov has finished 11 of his 12 wins whilst Taylor enjoys controlling the distance with his above-average height (6 foot 3) for the 170 pound division. Expect the undefeated Umalatov to pick up where he left off before he was sidelined for last year's playoffs.
Prediction: Magomed Umalatov by KO/TKO
Carlos Leal (-195) vs. David Zawada (+165)
Another welterweight semi-finalist looks set to go just one further than last year's playoffs, Carlos Leal (17-4) welcomes another former UFC veteran when David Zawada (18-7) makes his way into the PFL cage for the very first time.
Leal found himself on the losing end of a decision against 'reigning' champion Sabidou Sy in 2022 but will be hoping that his experience within the PFL system is enough to knock off an opponent that boasts 16 finishes from his 18 wins.
Zawada's experience against some of the best in the world in the UFC could prove to be the decisive x-factor that pushes him far into the competition. Saying that, former UFC fighters have not fared well at all so far this season and I expect the trend to continue with Leal picking up the victory.
Prediction: Carlos Leal by decision
Patrick Brady (+450) vs. Denis Goltsov (-600)
The only bout that is not within the lightweight or welterweight division, the pair of heavyweights find themselves on PFL 3 instead of 2 due to some last minute withdrawals that shoehorned this bout onto the card. On paper, it does not seem like a very fair matchup given the vast differences in experience.
Patrick Brady (5-0) will be making his PFL debut. Don't let the small record fool you, Brady is already 39 years old and it will be interesting to see what type of impact he can make in a quite shallow PFL heavyweight pool. His opponent on the other hand, has a wealth of experience. In fact, he has nine times the amount of professional bouts his opponent does.
Denis Goltsov (39-7) is an extremely versatile heavyweight, with both an impressive submission game and heavy hands to go along with it. Much like the odds suggests, I'm not giving Brady much of a chance to get his PFL season started with a win, and I expect Goltsov to pick up some bonus points with a finish.
Prediction: Denis Goltsov by KO/TKO
Co-main event: Clay Collard (-255) vs. Yamato Nikishiwa (+215)
Can Clay Collard (21-10) stop yet another hypetrain? After all, that's all he has done since joining the PFL for the 2021 season. First, he beat Anthony Pettis by decision in a fight both men were making their debuts as UFC veterans but I don't have to tell you who the majority of people were rooting for. A year later, he kicked off the 2022 season by beating Jeremy Stephens in his opponent's PFL debut. Can he do the same this weekend?
The opponent this time is not a UFC veteran but rather a tremendous prospect. Yamato Nikishiwa (21-3-6) is only 20 years old and won't turn 21 until December (!!!). How he's already up to 30 pro fights is beyond me but is it clear that he is looking to make a huge splash, and could become one of the PFL's brightest stars for years to come.
Will Collard yet again derail a hypetrain or will he finally be bested? With both men preferring to use their boxing skills than anything else, I expect the hungrier Nikishiwa to chase a finish and hand Collard a big blow in the standings.
Prediction: Yamato Nikishiwa by KO/TKO
Main event: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-105) vs. Shane Burgos (-115)
Perhaps the PFL's most exciting free agent acquisition this season, Shane Burgos (15-3) will finally make his debut for the promotion after he chose to fight out his UFC contract and test the open market. Much like the PFL has done throughout their existence, they have matched the exciting new talent with one of their most recognizable fighters in the current PFL lightweight champion, Olivier Aubin-Mercier (17-5).
The Canadian submission specialist is yet to taste defeat inside the PFL and carried all those victories to last year's PFL lightweight title and the one million dollar check. He is on a six-fight win streak, all of them in the PFL, and has become one of the faces of the company in recent years.
Saying that, Burgos is an extremely tough opponent whose main goal is to cause as much chaos and violence as possible. He left the UFC on a two-fight win streak and is surely going to be one of the favorites for the 155 pound tournament despite making his lightweight debut this Friday.
This fight is too close to pick. Even the bookies seem to have no idea which way this one is going to go so I will stick with the trend. As pumped as we get to watch former UFC fighters take on the PFL season, they have for the most part all come up short. Give me last year's champion to pick up the victory in an entertaining, back and forth clash.
Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier by decision
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