PFL 1 2023: Brendan Loughnane vs. Marlon Moraes predictions & odds
Predicting the outcome of every PFL 1 main card fight.
The PFL is back with another brand new season this Saturday, April 1 live from The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada with a whole lot of established and new names taking part in the 2023 PFL season.
Unlike the majority of MMA promotions, the PFL operates on a points-per-win league system as seen in soccer, with the winner taking point three points for a victory whilst the loser walks away with none. A bonus point system is in place when a fighter finishes their opponent before the final bell, with three points awarded when a fight ends in the first round, two in the second, and one point in the third round. The top four placed fighters in each weight class advance into a knockout bracket, with the winner walking away as the season's champion and a million dollars richer.
The inaugural PFL event sees featherweight and light heavyweights kick off their seasons, with two defending champions from 2022 headlining the event against well-known UFC veterans who will be hoping to showcase their talent in a stacked PFL roster.
PFL 1: Brendan Loughnane vs. Marlon Moraes predictions & odds*
Chris Wade (-160) vs. Bubba Jenkins (+140)
The newest PFL season kicks off with a pair of known quantities within the featherweight division. Chris Wade (22-8) will be looking to pick up his second victory over NCAA wrestling champion Bubba Jenkins (19-6), two years after the two initially clashed for a spot in the 145-pound final.
Their first fight proved to be a highly technical and skilled grappling match where the two showed their elite skills on the ground. Despite having less pedigree and credentials than his opponent, Wade was able to stunt Jenkins' desire for control by threatening multiple tight submission en route to a unanimous decision victory. Whilst the same grappling match is expected, I do feel that Jenkins will get it done this time.
On the losing end of the final last season, Jenkins, now aged 35, probably does not have too many runs at the one million dollar prize left in him. A win over Wade will not only avenge his loss but show that last year's run to the final was no fluke.
Prediction: Bubba Jenkins by unanimous decision
Movlid Khaybulaev (-650) vs. Ryoji Kudo (+475)
Another featherweight clash follows with Movlid Khaybulaev (19-0-1, 1 NC) taking on one of the semi-finalist from last year's 145-pound tournament, Ryoji Kudo (11-4-1). Although the PFL does not have a 'lineal championship', one could argue that Khaybulaev is the PFL's featherweight lineal champion as he won the 2021 season before being sidelined for 2022 with an injury.
Khaybulaev is the only man to hand a loss in the PFL to last season's featherweight winner Brendan Loughnane and will be looking to defend the 'title' which he never lost inside the cage. A training partner of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, it's no surprise that Khaybulev uses his world-class grappling to suffocate opponents.
Unfortunately for Kudo, the odds and myself don't give him too much of a chance. He does have fast hands and the power to sneak a knockout, however, the competition he faces is unlike anything he has seen before and he is likely to be on the ground or against the cage throughout the entirety of the 15 minute fight.
Prediction: Movlid Khaybulev by unanimous decision
Krzysztof Jotko (-450) vs. Will Fleury (+325)
The light heavyweight section of the card kicks off with a former UFC middleweight making the move to the PFL's 205-pound division. Krzysztof Jotko (24-6) enjoyed a respectable but unimpressive UFC career, compiling an 11-6 record with wins over Eryk Anders and Gerald Meerschaert. Whilst the record is nothing to laugh at, he did win 10 by decision, and following a loss to Brendan Allen in October of last year, the UFC released the Polish fighter from their books.
He will face Will Fleury (11-3), an Irishman currently riding a four fight win streak. Much like his opponent, Fleury is not one to look for the finish unless it truly present itself, preferring to fight at a slower pace behind strong jabs and leg kicks. Unfortunately for Fleury, that style of fight lends itself perfectly for the more experienced Jotko, who will kick off his PFL career with a win.
Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko by unanimous decision
Co-main event: Rob Wilkinson (-190) vs. Thiago Santos (+155)
One of the biggest acquisitions by the PFL this off-season, Thiago Santos (22-11) will have his hands full on his debut when he faces the reigning 2022 PFL light heavyweight champion Rob Wilkinson (17-2) in the co-main event.
UFC fans are all well aware of who Santos is. The former light heavyweight title challenger is coming into this fight in the worst form of his career, losing five of his last six fights before his UFC contract expired. Rob Wilkinson is another former UFC competitor, although he is mostly known for losing to Israel Adesanya by TKO during the latter's UFC debut, however, he's failed to lose since then and is riding a five knockout win streak.
Wilkinson is a much better fighter than he was at the UFC and Santos is facing the worst dip in his career. Already aged 39, this will be Santos' last chance to become a world champion and facing Wilkinson in his first fight is anything but easy. The reigning PFL 205-pound champion keeps his knockout streak alive with a dominant performance.
Prediction: Rob Wilkinson by KO/TKO (Round 2)
Main event: Brendan Loughnane (-650) vs. Marlon Moraes (+450)
A battle between two PFL champions, the main event clash between the PFL's reigning featherweight champion Brendan Loughnane (25-4) and former UFC title challenger Marlon Moraes (23-11-1) is sure to provide fireworks.
Moraes comes into this fight with a lot to prove. The former WSOF, which is the predecessor to the PFL, bantamweight champion faces an opponent riding a huge wave of momentum, a wave that saw him pick up the 145-pound title and the one million dollar check in 2022. Moraes on the other hand, has lost his last five fights, all by knockout, and was supposed to make a splash in his PFL debut. Instead, he was knocked out by Sheymon Moraes in the third round despite being in control during the first two.
There's a reason why the odds have Loughnane as such a big favorite despite being a lesser known quantity than his opponent. He became one of the PFL's biggest stars during his run to the title last year and I expect him to pick up the signature victory of his career when he stops Moraes in a back-and-forth entertaining main event.
Prediction: Brendan Loughnane by KO/TKO (Round 3)
*Go to DraftKings.com for the full PFL 1 odds
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