Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov preview and prediction

The UFC is returning to Abu Dhabi for a Fight Night on Aug. 3. The main event is a high-level bantamweight fight between No. 2 ranked Cory Sandhagen and No. 10 ranked Umar Nurmagomedov. This fight has major implications for the bantamweight top five, as the winner of this fight will likely get a title shot against the winner of Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili. Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov were previously scheduled to fight in a Nashville main event in August 2023, but Nurmagomedov had to withdraw three weeks before due to a shoulder injury. Sandhagen instead faced Rob Font, who he ended up wrestling easily to a unanimous decision, while Nurmagomedov out-wrestled Bekzat Almakhan to a unanimous decision when he returned to action in March 2024.

Sandhagen's fighting background was composed of taekwondo, boxing, and kickboxing, where he greatly thrived as he won multiple WKA titles. In a new MMA career beginning in 2015, his first five fights, which he won, were at four different MMA organizations, including FTW, RFA, Paramount MMA, and Sparta Combat League. Sandhagen made his debut at a more professional fighting organization, Legacy Fighting Alliance, in February 2017 against Jamall Emmers, who won by unanimous decision in a loss that improved Sandhagen, as he won his next three fights by knockout during the next two years. Sandhagen eventually earned a UFC contract, beginning in early 2018, and since then, he has solidified himself as a high-level contender, who has yet to fight for undisputed gold. Sandhagen has good striking at range, dangerous knees on offense, solid durability, and decent grappling. His most notable wins include Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, Marlon Vera, and Song Yadong.

Nurmagomedov is best known for being the cousin of the retired, undefeated legend Khabib Nuramgomedov, as he also comes from Dagestan, where elite contenders can be born. His background is composed of freestyle wrestling, Thai boxing, and combat sambo, where he became a world champion at age 19. After becoming an amateur champion at WMMAA, he started competing in professional MMA in 2016 at Fight Nights Global, a Russian organization, until he became a bantamweight champion defending his title between the two organizations, PFL and GFC. At 12-0, he earned himself a UFC contract in 2020, eventually extending his record to 17-0 during four years. Nurmagomedov has good kicks, decent range control, and strong enough wrestling to take anyone's back. The major wins of his career are Sergey Morozov, Brian Kelleher, Nate Maness, and Raoni Barcelos.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction

If Sandhagen is to win this fight, he needs to keep the fight standing. His footwork is important to make it hard for Nurmagomedov to shoot takedowns at him and make him confused while striking. If Nurmagomedov shoots at him, he needs to be skilled enough to scramble out of those wrestling positions, while protecting his neck and back at the same time. Sandhagen can be great at timing his explosive attacks, such as flying knees and head kicks. He has to give Nurmagomedov attacks to think about and make him reactive, making him hesitant to throw strikes, leading to Sandhagen being able to pick him apart from a distance. Sandhagen can take Nurmagomedov out early, or he could draw it out to the championship rounds, possibly making it easier as Nurmagomedov lacks experience in championship rounds.

While his opponent's main path to victory lies in the stand-up, Nurmagomedov's best path is through the wrestling department. He must be perfect with timing his takedowns, or he could risk himself walking into a dangerous knee from Sandhagen. Despite being dropped by an overhand from Almakhan, Nurmagomedov's striking defense remains high at 76 percent, and he must be defensibly responsible in the stand-up, as Sandhagen's well-timed attacks can end the fight at any moment. He has good kicks, especially question mark kicks, which could be an asset in getting the better of the range against Sandhagen, leading it to be possibly easier to shoot takedowns and land better strikes. The pressure would be a good key to victory for Nurmagomedov to use, as TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan had success pressuring Sandhagen, messing up his timing, range, and outpointing strategy.

Sandhagen has fought better competition than Nurmagomedov and has more tools to win on the feet. However, he has fought title eliminators before and has always fallen short, specifically because of the grapplers he faces such as Aljimain Sterling and Dillashaw. Nurmagomedov is another level in grappling from those fighters, and it could be a plus that his famous cousin will be in his corner, who always coaches his athletes to fight for success. The recent welterweight title upset from Belal Muhammad showed that, as he received good advice from that Nurmagomedov cousin beforehand. Nurmagomedov can be defensibly responsible enough to hang with Sandhagen on the feet, all while he pressures him and will not get dropped by his non-powerful punches. He will time the takedowns necessary to control Sandhagen, take his back, and find a submission.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission.