Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga preview and prediction

Few fighters in all combat sports command the same amount of attention as Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs). For nearly a decade, his fights have usually been the most significant in boxing, generating record-breaking revenue at the live gate and on pay-per-view. Alvarez also boasts the most comprehensive resume in all of boxing without a peer in sight. 

In what seems to be the final chapters of his 20-year career, Alvarez will next take on the power-punching Edgar "The Chosen One" Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs). The event will take place on September 14 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and will be shown live on pay-per-view by Premier Boxing Champions and on Prime Video. 

Alvarez is still viewed as the number one fighter at super middleweight and will be making the fifth defense of his undisputed crown against Berlanga. The IBF title won't be on the line as Alvarez was stripped of the championship in the summer after choosing to bypass facing his mandatory William Scull. A fight with Scull would have been met with scorn had Alvarez chosen to pursue his mandatory. But, the fight with Berlanga wasn't exactly met with cheers of excitement from fans and pundits either. 

Undoubtedly, Alvarez has the best resume in boxing, with over 20 championship fights against former world champions. The Mexican star's resume and box office power allow him to pick and choose when and who he fights. While Alvarez's resume is impressive, it hasn't shielded him from criticism. Fans have been clamoring for Alvarez to face David Benavidez for years, and bypassing the former super middleweight titleholder once again brought a level of apathy and disapproval from a large majority of fight fans toward the fight with Berlanga. 

The 27-year-old New York-based Berlanga isn't close to being the worst opponent Alvarez could have chosen. He is undefeated and started his career with 16 straight first-round stoppages.  However, the fight feels manufactured and forced. The fight's promotion has been filled with trash-talking, with Berlanga purposely taking on the role of a villain in a ploy to either goad Alvarez to fight in a particular manner or garner more attention for the fight. Alvarez, who has been part of multiple contentious and respectful promotions, hasn't let anything Berlanga has stated bother him.

"I like them like that," said Alvarez of Berlanga's trash-talking. "I like them to be confident and do a lot of talking. I like breaking their face when they play like that. I'm eagerly awaiting that day. It'll be the beatdown of his life."

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga preview

One of the issues concerning the fight promotion is the perceived notion that Berlanga has been thrust over others instead of genuinely earning a fight with Alvarez. A few steps have been skipped. Following his 16th straight first-round stoppage, Berlanga had a string of five fights from 2021 to 2023 against a range of opposition in which he looked vulnerable and, at worst, looked like his skillset was diminishing. However, it could be argued that Berlanga needed these fights to experience facing adversity and develop a focused mindset when a fight isn't going according to plan.

In his most recent outing last February, Berlanga scored his first stoppage since 2020, taking out Padraig McCrory in six rounds. Now, back to winning by knockout, Berlanga was catapulted immediately into a fight with Alvarez. There weren't any fights made with the likes of Caleb Plant, Diego Pacheco, and Jaime Munguia, among other top contenders, for Berlanga to prove himself. Opportunities in boxing can be scarce, and one can't fault a fighter for seizing a chance at glory when it's presented. 

"There's a lot of doubt out there on me, but I've been facing adversity all my life," said Berlanga.  "This is my opportunity to be legendary in the sport of boxing. September 14 is going to be something to remember. Puerto Rico vs. Mexico is the biggest rivalry in boxing and we're making history on September 14."

Whatever the odds, the type of promotion, or the fans' thoughts, what matters most is what happens inside the ring. Berlanga could have used more fights before competing against Alvarez. Still, all boxers are inherently risk-takers, and it would have been just as foolish for him to refuse the fight with Alvarez as the opportunity may not have presented itself again. 

Berlanga will have to be better than he's ever been to compete with Alvarez, which might not be enough. He could be facing Alvarez at the right time, who may be on a decline and no longer the pound-for-pound star he was between 2018 and 2021. However, against Berlanga, Alvarez doesn't have to be at his peak to win. 

The last time Alvarez scored a stoppage was against Caleb Plant in 2021 at the pinnacle of his run at the top of the sport. The four-division champions' last highlight reel knockout came in 2019 against an aging Sergey Kovalev. The first few rounds of the fight will tell and foreshadow how the remainder of the match will play out. Berlanga could be overanxious and become overly aggressive, leading to Alvarez capitalizing on mistakes. Alvarez will be patient, processing Berlanga's actions, and act accordingly. Look for Alvarez to stop Berlanga over the first half of the fight if the New Yorker decides to attack.

Official prediction: Alvarez via stoppage.