3 keys to victory for Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad at UFC 304

The UFC 304 main event will be Leon Edwards defending his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad on July 27, in Manchester, England. This is a rematch of a fight that had an anti-climatic ending years ago. Edwards was originally set to face Khamzat Chimaev in a main event at the UFC APEX in March 2021, after their last two scheduled bouts fell apart for various reasons. Chimaev pulled out three weeks before and Muhammad stepped in, as this was a major step up in competition for him regarding rankings. Edwards was outclassing Muhammad on the feet until he accidentally eye-poked him 18 seconds into the second round, rendering him unable to continue and resulting in a No-contest ending. Both fighters have improved since then, solidifying themselves as top contenders, and each fighter possesses keys to victory in this fight.

Leon Edwards' UFC 304 keys to victory

1. Footwork

To start with the champ, Edwards, his first key to victory is ensuring his footwork is on point. That will be important when backing up, as Muhammad will try to shoot takedowns on him and overwhelm him with strikes. Good footwork can help Edwards have cage awareness while not letting Muhammad execute his possible game plan. If the footwork stops Muhammad from executing his pressure game plan, opportunities open up for Edwards to accomplish his own game plan of pressure, as seen in the first fight. Muhammad could end up fighting tentatively as seen in the first fight or, similar to Colby Covington fighting Edwards, at UFC 296.

2. Scrambles

Winning scrambles is important for Edwards, given Muhammad's best chance to win this fight is by wrestling. Muhammad can have good timing on his takedowns, not just when moving forward but on the back foot as well, as seen in the rematch with Vicente Luque in April 2022. When Muhammad gets his opponents down to the ground, his ground control is strong and tough for opponents to escape from. Since Edwards has escaped from getting taken down by high-level wrestlers such as Kamaru Usman and Covington, he is capable of scrambling out of Muhammad's takedowns. Edwards has a good clinch game, involving damaging elbows and knees, which could be a good weapon to escape takedown attempts up close.

3. Kicks

Edwards has amazing kicks, and utilizing them all in this fight would be useful. He is measured when he throws calf kicks, body kicks, and head kicks. The calf kicks will help hinder the movement of Muhammad, making him easy to hit and counter, as he may overextend at times due to a damaged leg. Body kicks will help Edwards win the pressure battle, making Muhammad hesitant to come forward and possibly easier to headhunt, due to dropped hands to protect his body more than his head. Though Muhammad is durable, he has had a habit in the past of getting hit with left-head kicks. If Edwards can time a perfect left head kick and set Muhammad in a vulnerable place, he could find a finish.

Belal Muhammad's UFC 304 keys to victory

1. Wrestle

An obvious key to Muhammad beating Edwards is to wrestle heavily and effectively. He did not attempt a single takedown in the whole first fight with Edwards as he allowed himself to get pressured and outclassed. Luckily, he has improved since then, as he now has a threat of well-timed takedowns moving forward and backward. When he pushes fighters against the fence, Muhammad can be sneaky occasionally when he finds ways to level change around their fighting hands. He can win on points by ground-striking Edwards as he is held down or holding him against the fence, wearing on him.

2. Checking kicks

Another key to victory for Muhammad, that not many people are talking about, is checking the calf kicks of Edwards. Muhammad can be good at checking calf kicks when fighters attempt some on him. There is a habit in Israel Adesanya's career where if an opponent can check his calf kicks, they can beat him, as seen in the fights with Sean Strickland, Alex Pereira, and Jan Błachowicz. Calf kicks can be a good weapon for kickboxers and if a fighter can check the calf kicks, that can help with outstriking the kickboxer due to the lead leg not being hurt enough to compromise movement, as pressure can become easier. Though Adesanya and Edwards are different fighters, Muhammad is in a unique situation where he could try something that Edwards' past opponents have not seemed to try, which could be a benefit for him pulling an upset. If Muhammad can check the calf kicks, Edwards loses a main weapon that has been an ally to him in winning previous fights and Muhammad could be helped in making his pressure, wrestling game plan successful, while possibly outstriking him.

3. Pressure

A final key to victory for Muhammad is not letting Edwards get an inch. He must not let him get his footwork moving, allowing him to get the better of striking exchanges. Edwards is great at finding and maintaining range, which Muhammad must nullify. There will likely be a clinch battle, which Muhammad must win by getting better strikes on the inside. It could be hard for Edwards to outstrike Muhammad if he cannot have space.