3 keys to victory for Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC Abu Dhabi

The Abu Dhabi main event officially goes down on August 3 as it is an important fight for the bantamweight division. No. 2 ranked Cory Sandhagen and No. 10 ranked Umar Nurmagomedov will be going to war to see who will get the next title shot after Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili happens in September. Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov were initially supposed to fight at a Nashville main event in August 2023 before Nurmagomedov hurt his shoulder and was forced to pull out of the fight. Sandhagen ended up out-wrestling Rob Font, the new replacement, to a unanimous decision while Nurmagomedov returned in March 2024, when he out-wrestled Bekzat Almakhan to a unanimous decision. Both main event fighters have looked dominant in their recent victories, and they both have keys to victory, giving themselves an equal chance to win.

Cory Sandhagen keys to victory

To start with Sandhagen, the higher-ranked fighter, his first key to victory is establishing his range effectively. He has to make it easier to outpoint and damage Nurmagomedov, as he has difficulty shooting at him. Sandhagen has good weapons to keep Nurmagomedov away, such as long punches, front body kicks, and leg kicks. He has good footwork that can also be a good asset, especially when Nurmagomedov could have difficulty tracking him down to shoot takedowns. Sandhagen can execute explosive attacks such as flying knees and head kicks after effective range is established.

Another major victory key for Sandhagen is winning scrambles against Nurmagomedov, who likely will prioritize wrestling in his game plan. Sandhagen has good wrestling and BJJ, as he occasionally threatens opponents with submissions when he is on top and on his back. With the grappling skills he possesses, Sandhagen is capable of defending takedowns and getting up, if he gets taken down. He must protect his back and neck at all times, though, as he leaves them open when grappling with opponents. Nurmagomedov is a master at taking opponents' backs and finding submissions.

Finally, Sandhagen has to make sure the timing of his most significant attacks is on point. He is not the most powerful puncher, but his head kicks and flying knees are. He does not even have to knock out Nurmagomedov with every attack, but he should, at least, make him nervous on the feet, confused about Sandhagen's next possible moves. Not only that, but he can also try to win off damage, as the judges can consider that when scoring the fight for him if it goes the distance. Sandhagen has good, long punches which can be useful in making that happen. It can be similar to Sean Strickland, who is not a power puncher himself, but his volume of long punches causes damage to his opponents' faces, as seen in his fights with Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis.

Umar Nurmagomedov keys to victory

For Nurmagomedov, wrestling is the most important key, as Sandhagen is a much better striker than him and is too durable to get knocked out. He is as skilled as a wrestler as the famous champions, Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov, his retired cousin. When Nurmagomedov gets his opponents down, his top control and taking of backs are high-level and strong. There will be many opportunities where takedowns can be executed on Sandhagen. If Sandhagen throws a front body kick, flying knee, or is on the backfoot, takedowns can be executed in those situations if they are timed properly. If he gives his back when trying to escape being in grappling positions like he usually does, Nurmagomedov can easily submit Sandhagen there.

Pressure would be a good key to victory for Nurmagomedov, as fighters who have beat Sandhagen have thrived when pressuring him. TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan are two prime examples of how they edged out decisions against Sandhagen. Their pressure, which was a mix of striking and grappling, made Sandhagen lose his timing and range control as he got pretty tired in the later rounds. Aljimain Sterling became the first fighter to finish Sandhagen in June 2020 when he had a game plan consisting of immediate pressure, catching a body kick, and taking his back to find a submission. Nurmagomedov can find similar success, as his pressure key to victory can go along with his wrestling key to victory to find a finish. His boxing and kicks are solid enough that he could even mix it up some against Sandhagen, assisting in his grappling first game plan.

Finally, an important key to victory for Nurmagomedov is to be defensibly responsible. He has a 76percent striking defense, 18 points higher than Sandhagen's striking defense at 58 percent. It has to remain high enough for this fight due to Sandhagen possessing explosive attacks that can end the fight at any moment. Nurmagomedov was dropped by an overhand right in his last fight against Almakhan, who was making his UFC debut, but luckily, he pushed through adversity and dominated him in wrestling for the rest of the fight. The point is that he cannot make small mistakes like that against Sandhagen, who is a more elite striker with more killer instinct.