3 keys to victory for Alexa Grasso & Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 306

UFC 306 is going down at the Sphere on Sept. 14 as a special show in honor of Mexican Independence Day. Many Mexican fighters will compete on this card, and they will put on entertaining wars. While the main event will be a bantamweight title fight in Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, the co-main event will make history. The co-main event will be Alexa Grasso, the women's flyweight champion, taking on Valentina Shevchenko in the first UFC women's trilogy. They are 1-0-1 as Grasso won the first fight, at UFC 285, by fourth-round submission while they both fought to a controversial draw at Noche UFC. Both fighters can win the trilogy and end the rivalry with solid keys to victory.

3 keys to victory for Alexa Grasso

1. Defend the takedowns

Shevchenko took down Grasso four times in each fight, helping her win the first fight until Grasso's miracle submission, and arguably could have helped her take the rematch. Grasso's wrestling defense looked better in the rematch as she escaped from the bottom position better than in the first fight, but, more improvement could be useful. If Grasso wants to keep her belt, she cannot afford to get taken down multiple times. Shevchenko could upgrade her wrestling in this fight, as she may likely be more aggressive with submission attempts and landing vicious, ground strikes. If Grasso can stop the takedowns, that can remove an important asset to Shevchenko's game.

2. Keep the pressure

Grasso has shown that she can thrive when she pressures Shevchenko. Combined with her powerful boxing, that is a recipe that can make Shevchenko uncomfortable. Usually, that can make wrestlers uncomfortable to shoot takedowns but Shevchenko can have wrestling success from the backfoot. That makes this victory key tie in with Grasso's first victory key. While pressuring, Grasso has to be defensively responsible both in wrestling and striking. Shevchenko can have good counter-attacks off the backfoot such as counter-punching or various kicks.

3. Find the knockout blows

During the rematch at Noche UFC, Grasso achieved becoming the first fighter in the UFC to knock down Shevchenko. She dropped Shevchenko in the second round with a right hand as they were exchanging in the pocket. Shevchenko recovered well, but, that was one of the more vulnerable moments of her career. She has only lost by stoppage one time, and that was against Liz Carmouche in September 2010, long before her UFC career. With powerful punches coming in the first fight and the knockdown coming in the rematch, Grasso has the opportunity to find the knockout blows in the trilogy. She has just the powerful boxing needed to stop Shevchenko and end the rivalry finally.

3 keys to victory for Valentina Shevchenko

1. Do more with the takedowns

Shevchenko is a skilled wrestler, as she holds the record for the most takedowns landed in UFC women's flyweight history at 39 takedowns. She is physically strong, has vicious elbows to land while on top, and has a good submission threat. Taking Grasso down and holding her down has played a part in Shevchenko getting the better of her in both fights for the most part. The issue with that is she barely landed significant damage while on top and barely looked for submissions, as Grasso seemed defensively responsible while on her back. If Shevchenko can do better finding ground strikes and attempting submissions, she can win this fight. She could find a finish or, at least, win the fight on damaging points, as that can leave a good impression on the judges.

2. Continue the striking success from the rematch

In the first fight, Grasso won the majority of striking exchanges, while Shevchenko won primarily on the ground. In the rematch, Shevchenko showed better striking as she won more striking exchanges in the rematch. It appeared she found holes in the high, boxing guard Grasso likes to fight with. Shevchenko established a solid jab she was able to land well and landed good hooks around the high guard. If similar striking like that continues and if Shevchenko can move around the Octagon well, it can make Grasso have a hard time pressuring and tracking her down.

3. Use more leg kicks

This is an underrated key that many people likely are not mentioning that Shevchenko can use. Grasso has a boxing style of striking, meaning she stands heavy on her front leg. That leaves her front leg open to many leg kicks, and that is an adjustment Shevchenko could make that is different from the first two fights. If Shevchenko can batter Grasso's front leg, that can give her a striking advantage in the stats, as Grasso's movement is also hindered. If the movement is hindered, Grasso could overextend and leave openings for counter-attacks from Shevchenko. That could also make takedowns easier for Shevchenko.