1 best and worst bet at UFC Vegas 94

The UFC is back at the UFC APEX on July 20 with a women's main event No. 3 ranked strawweight Amanda Lemos versus No. 5 ranked Virna Jandiroba. That said, the odds in most of these fights are relatively close and the fans are in for a great opportunity to profit big. Here is one best and worst bet at UFC Vegas 94.

Best: Amanda Lemos to win in Round 4,5, or by decision +320

Regarding the best bet on a fight card, it does not always have to be the heaviest favorite of the night to get the job done. Locating the best bet on a card can be found in the exact method of victory bets, or even picking the exact round you think one side will win in. In this case, Lemos, who is known for her finishing ability in her UFC career has recently shown the ability to reach the final bell. Lemos's last two fights have both gone to a decision against Weili Zhang and Mackenzie Dern.

A trend that can be seen in Lemos's fights is that when she is competing against top 10 ranked fighters the fights seem to last longer. Before Lemos steps into the Octagon on July 20 she will have had five fights against top 10 ranked fighters, and three of them have gone the distance with another being finished in the third round of a three-round fight.

37 percent of Lemos's wins in the UFC have gone to a decision while 100 percent of Jandiroba's losses have also come by decision. Granted we are looking at two fighters who have little to no five-round fight experience the assumption that these women will pace themself is not to shy from.

There have been 27 women's five-round strawweight fights in the UFC's history and 63 percent of them have gone to a decision. Looking at those percentages the hope is that we are on the right side of a decision in this one.

At the current odds according to FanDuel +320 is a 23.81 percent probability of cashing. The chances of this bet winning seem to be reasonable with the stats to back it. Give me Lemos to win in either rounds four, five, or by decision.

Worst: Lucie Pudilova moneyline -114

The stars just do not seem to be aligning for Lucie Pudilova in this bout against Luana Carolina at UFC Vegas 94. Pudilova has had 10 fights in the UFC and has a record of three wins and seven losses. Carolina on the other hand does not have the best record either, but has five wins and three losses and is currently on a two-fight win streak inside of the Octagon.

Although, Pudilova has faced tough competition inside the Octagon Carolina is surely on a similar side of competition that Pudilova has faced recently. Pudilova is on a two-fight losing streak to Ailin Perez and Joselyne Edwards.

It isn't that Pudilova is incapable of beating Carolina it is the the fact that the oddsmakers show Pudilova as the favorite. Finding value in a particular fight or fighter is why this is going down as the worst bet of the night.

A fighter who is three and seven inside the UFC and on her second stint with the company is not pointing in the right direction to be labeled as the favorite against anyone. With the potential to drop three fights in a row, and her UFC career being put in jeopardy once again is the only case that can be made as to why Pudilova is the favorite in this one.

If you were to bet 100 dollars per fight on the money line for each of these fighters in the UFC Carolina would have provided a total profit amount of 545 dollars in just eight fights inside the UFC. Whereas, Pudilova has 10 fights in the UFC and has a total loss of 482 dollars. In terms of percentages, Carolina has a return on investment of 68.13 percent which is the third highest among fighters fighting at UFC Vegas 94. Whereas, Pudilova in her 10 UFC fights has a negative return on investment of 48.27 percent. Speaking in dollars that would mean your 800 investment in Carolina would have turned to 1,345 dollars. On the other hand, your 1000-dollar investment on Pudilova would have only yielded a return of 518 dollars.

Can you see why this is the worst bet of the night? Always remember when you are betting on mixed martial arts to put your emotions to the side and look at what is in front of you. You can look at many things to justify picking one side or the other, but make sure to leave your love for a particular fighter at the door.

In this case, Carolina is by far the more profitable fighter in this one. Laying the juice on Pudilova seems like an irresponsible thing to do when there are far better opportunities to make money elsewhere when betting on fights at UFC Vegas 94. We are all in for a treat this weekend with a ton of very close odds in a majority of fights taking place at the UFC APEX on July 20.

Always bet responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Odds are, according to FanDuel, subject to change.