UFC Vegas 78 features 13 fights now that Jose Johnson has stepped in on short notice to take on Da’Mon Blackshear, and that means there are plenty of bets available for this card. Vicente Luque takes on Rafael dos Anjos in the main event in a battle of UFC veterans, but there are plenty of other fights to bet on. Let’s narrow all the bets down to the single best bet and the single worst bet on this card.
The best bet for UFC Vegas 78 is a fight to go under 2.5 rounds
There are a lot of heavy favorites that need to be parlay pieces as the price is way too steep to bet on their own. However, there is a fight that we are getting a great price on to go under 2.5 rounds, and that is Francis Marshall vs. Isac Dulgarian. This fight should be an exciting banger in the featherweight division, and we are getting -130 for the fight to be finished before 2.5 rounds are completed.
Isaac Dulgarian is making his UFC debut, and he is 5-0 in FAC, and he has won every fight before the three-minute mark of the first round. He starts fights with extreme aggression pushing the pace and overwhelming his opponents, and so far that has worked. However, Francis Marshall will be his toughest opponent yet and Marshall has plenty of tools to weather the storm and get his own finish.
Marshall was very tentative in the first two rounds against William Gomis, but finally got in the groove late in the fight and nearly finished Gomis on the ground with his wrestling and submission game. Marshall knocked out Marcelo Rojo in his UFC debut, and he has finished five of his seven professional wins.
We have not seen the cardio of Dulgarian be tested, but if he does not get the early finish as he has in previous fights, his pace is unsustainable and Marshall can take advantage with a KO or submission. Both fighters can finish, and this fight should be exciting and quick.
The worst bet for UFC Vegas 78 is Jaqueline Amorim -240 vs Montserrat Ruiz
Jaqueline Amorim can absolutely defeat Ruiz, but laying -240 is way too steep of a price and that makes this the worst bet of the card. Ruiz is 1-1 in the UFC with her loss being a flash knockout against Amanda Lemos, but before that, she dominated Cheyanne Vlismas on the ground to get the victory in her UFC debut. Her path to victory over Vlismas could be a glimpse into her strategy for fighting Amorim on Saturday.
Amorim is a striker, but she lost her UFC debut against Sam Hughes, and what makes this concerning is that Hughes actually lost the first round, but dominated rounds two and three by taking Amorim down and winning the ground game. Watching Amorim lose a fight because of a lack of takedown defense and ground game should be a red flag on betting on her as Ruiz showed she can win UFC fights by winning the takedown and ground game.
Amorim should have the striking edge, but laying -240 on a fighter who lost her UFC debut, has weak takedown defense, and is fighting someone who can land takedowns and hold opponents down makes this the worst bet on the car.