1 best and worst bet at UFC 304

After an eight-year absence, the UFC returns to Manchester, England with a highly anticipated rematch between welterweight champion Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad headlining UFC 304. Also, interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall returns to his hometown versus Curtis Blaydes in the co-main event in a fight that Dana White has already stated will fight the winner of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic to unify the belts. There are a ton of great fights at UFC 304, and great opportunities to make money against the sportsbook in this event. Here is one best and worst bet at UFC 304.

Best: Paddy Pimblett moneyline (-106)

The majority of fight fans who see this pick will tell you that the main reason to back Pimblett is because he is fighting in his home country. Which definitely makes a great point when Green has to fly across the country and get acclimated to the time zone all within a few weeks. However, in this case it is more than just having home field advantage for Pimblett.

Pimblett’s greatest asset at this stage of his career is his age. Green is 37 years old whereas Pimblett is only 29 and entering the prime years of his career. That does not mean that Green will roll over and hand Pimblett a victory, but we all know the only one who remains undefeated in this game is Father Time. We could all agree that Green has more fights behind him than he does in front of him and when you look at it from a statistical approach the numbers are staggering.

67 percent of the time when there is an 8-year age difference between fighters, the younger fighter has ended up winning that fight. An even deeper dive into the analytics reveals that when the odds favor the older fighter against a younger opponent by eight or more years, that number reaches 80 percent in favor of the younger fighter. In this case, Pimblett fits all the criteria and is the main reason Pimblett is the best bet on the card.

On the contrary, is there any possibility for Green to win this fight? Of course. This is a fight and this would not be the first time an older fighter would beat a younger opponent. But referencing Green’s history, his last five losses have been to fighters with an average age difference of almost six years younger. That list includes Jaylin Turner, Drew Dober, Islam Makhachev, Rafael Fiziev, and Thiago Moises.

Make sure you conduct your own research on who you will be betting on at UFC 304, but all the stats seem to back Pimblett to get the job done. This should shape up to be Pimblett’s official introduction to the UFC’s lightweight rankings and put him in line to fight another ranked fighter in his next bout. Give me Pimblett to win in round 3 or by decision at +210 odds.

Worst: Muhammed Mokaev vs Manuel Kape to go the distance (-174)

Out of all of the fights on the card at UFC 304 this one seems like the most likely to not end up in the judges hands. Obviously second to the co-main event between Aspinall and Blaydes, but you get the point. Mokaev and Kape have built up an enormous amount of animosity leading up to this fight, and it seems like that may boil over into the cage. Aside from all of the verbal jabs one has thrown at the other on social media their records and finish rates speak volumes.

Mokaev’s undefeated 11-fight professional record boasts an impressive 64 percent finish rate, including six UFC victories with a slightly higher finish rate of 66 percent. Mokaev is known for his intense and relentless ground game, and his grappling experience could prove to be the upper hand if Kape makes even the slightest error on the ground.

On the other hand, Kape is a finisher in his own right. With a professional record of 19-6, Kape’s finish rate is even higher at 84 percent than his opponent. Kape has 11 wins by knockout and five wins by submission in his professional career, but he may be seeking to hand Mokaev his first loss in his career as well. No man has ever beaten Mokaev let alone finished him. That alone may incentivize Kape to be able to say he was the first and only to beat Mokaev by stoppage. This is your typical grappler versus striker bout and Kape definitely has the advantage on the feet.

This will be a battle of high-level flyweights, and with an exciting win either one of these fighter can set themselves up to fight for gold in their next fight. You could definitely make the case for this fight to go the distance because of how high level these fighters really are, but even a calculated approach can lead to a stoppage victory for either side. The main reason the fight to go the distance is the worst bet of the night is not because of their skills, but because of the value that is on the other side of the bet.

Mokaev and Kape both understand that a spectacular win could propel them into a title fight. However, will the fight end early? With a 63.64 percent implied probability of going the distance at the current odds of -174, betting on a full 15 minutes isn't appealing. Considering their combined finish rate of 76% throughout their careers, a stoppage is entirely possible. If you are looking for a to go the distance bet this might not be the best option for you. Take your money elsewhere and secure profits with a different bet.

Always bet responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Odds are according to FanDuel and are subject to change.