The 1 best (and worst) bet for UFC 286

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze v Ibragimov
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze v Ibragimov / Handout/GettyImages

The best and worst bet gamblers can make for UFC 286.

It's officially fight week for UFC 286 as fans gear up to pack the O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday, March 18. This could be one of the most significant UFC events of the year headlined by the culmination of a trilogy between current champion Leon Edwards and former champion Kamaru Usman who looks to regain his belt.

With no shortage of hometown talent, this event should deliver a raucous crowd and violent fights. Even better, we've also got a plethora of great value spots for all the degenerates out there. We've got some live dogs and some scary traps, so let's delve in.

The best bet for UFC 286 may surprise some readers

While it's always tempting to bet the biggest fights on the card, we've identified a fantastic value spot that our readers can take to the bank. Currently, Marvin Vettori is a -275 favorite over the streaking Roman Dolidze who looks to add to his current win streak as a +225 underdog.

Last week, we saw Dolidze's countryman Merab Dvalishvili pull off the upset by pitching a shutout over Petr Yan as a +210 underdog, and there is no reason Dolidze can't follow suit this Saturday in London. While Vettori is known for having a granite chin, Dolidze brings a great combination of grappling/submission prowess and striking power into this bout, and for a wrestler like Vettori who tends to rely on top position and control, Dolidze's wild scrambly style from the bottom should present some big issues.

Look for Dolidze to snatch up a submission in a transitional scramble and take that +225 ticket to the bank. Even if Vettori wins this one, value is king when it comes to betting on MMA and this price is way off.

Worst bet for UFC 286: Sam Patterson -280

Where there's a best bet, there must also be a worst bet, and we believe based on the price Sam Patterson -280 is the worst bet a gambler can make on the UFC 286 card.

While fading UFC debutants which Patterson's opponent Yanal Ashmoz is generally a profitable strategy, Patterson himself is also debuting off a win on Dana White's Contender Series last fall. At 10-1-1, there is plenty of reason to be high on Patterson but what sticks out to us is the lack of wins over quality competition. Ashmoz meanwhile is undefeated at 6-0 including a win in the PFL Challenger Series last year.

Ashmoz may not be a world-beater, but neither of these fighters has shown anything on tape to indicate that they should be a -280 favorite over anyone on the UFC roster, and this price is simply way too wide even for those who like Patterson. Just like UFC 284, we'll always advise against betting on the unknown at such a big price.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Use the link to earn the latest DK promo: Bet $5, Win $200 in bonus bets guaranteed.

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UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman takes place on Saturday, Mar. 18, 2023, live from the O2 Arena in London, England. Follow along with FanSided MMA for all your news and highlights.