The 1 best bet, and the 1 worst bet for UFC 292

Picking the single best bet and worst bet on the board for UFC 292.
Oct 22, 2022; Abu Dhabi, UAE;  Sean O'Malley (blue gloves) defeats Petr Yan (red gloveS) during UFC
Oct 22, 2022; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Sean O'Malley (blue gloves) defeats Petr Yan (red gloveS) during UFC / Craig Kidwell-USA TODAY Sports

UFC 292 gives us plenty of betting opportunities to take advantage of, and we're looking for the best bet and the worst bet on the card. Aljamain Sterling will take on Sean O’Malley for the bantamweight title, but will the best bet or worst bet be in that fight?

The best bet for UFC 292 is a moneyline play on a fighter coming off a loss

This card is loaded with huge favorites, and most likely, all the favorites are not going to win so we have to be careful when looking at money line wagers. The best bet is Marlon Vera at -186 over Pedro Munhoz as we are getting a discount on Vera because he’s coming off a win, and Munhoz is coming off a win. 

Vera is coming off an extremely close split decision loss to Cory Sandhagen, and if one judge went the other way, Vera would be moving up in competition, and not down. Before the Sandhagen fight, Vera had won four fights in a row over good competition including finishes over Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar, and a dominating decision win over Rob Font where he broke Font’s face in multiple places. With his vicious striking, takedown offense, and elite fight intelligence, he is primed for a bounce-back win against Munhoz.

Pedro Munhoz is coming off a win against Chris Guiterrez, but Guiterrez fought tentatively and off his back and his back foot for most of the fight. Give credit to Munhoz for getting the win, but Guiterrez missed plenty of opportunities. Before that, Munhoz had lost three out of four fights and had a no contest against O’Malley so moving up to fight someone the caliber of Vera is a massive jump in competition. Getting -185 might sound like a steep price, but at the end of the fight, it should prove to be a bargain.

The worst bet for UFC 292 is a -350 favorite

Natalia Silva is one of the most exciting female fighters on the roster right now, but laying this kind of price against a warrior like Andrea Lee is crazy, and that makes Natalia Silva at -350 the worst bet on the card. Silva will be shorter than Andrea Lee with the reach disadvantage, and although she is a dynamic striker, she has shown it in the UFC against bad fighters nowhere near the quality of Andrea Lee.

Silva has finished her last two fights against Terez Bleda and Victoria Leonardo who are bottom tier UFC fighters, and in the Bleda fight, Silva was on her back for most of round one until Bleda gassed out. Leonardo is 1-3 in the UFC with her win being against the recently released from the UFC Mandy Bohm. Andrea Lee has lost her last two fights, but one was a decision to Viviane Araujo, and the other was a split decision loss to Maycee Barber, who is on a title run.

Lee was able to take Maycee Barber down and win exchanges on the ground, and if she can do it to Barber, she certainly can do it to Natalia Silva. Silva has the striking advantage on the feet, but Lee won’t stay on the feet if she’s losing the striking exchanges. Lee can win the fight with her wrestling and ground game, and with her experience against the much better competition, the line should be much closer to even making Natalia Silva the worst bet on the card.

Odds courtesy of Draftkings

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