Stevie Ray vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
For the lightweights, we have a pair of two ex-UFC fighters who were both cut from the promotion for struggling but have found their way back to success. Each man is coming in on strong streaks. Stevie Ray is on a two-fight win streak, while Olivier Aubin-Mercier is on a five-fight win streak.
The two men are night and day when it comes to their styles. Ray isn’t a high-volume striker. In fact, compared to Aubin-Mercier, he barely throws anything. Ray has thrown 172 strikes and landed 99, while Aubin-Mercier has thrown 498 and landed 280. Clearly, Aubin-Mercier is the high-volume guy. That said, neither man is known for their knockout power. Ray has six in 25 fights, and Aubin-Mercier has one in 16 fights.
This is not going to be a contest of two elite strikers swinging for the fence. More than likely Aubin-Mercier is going to use his striking game to keep Ray at a distance, while Ray will more than likely attempt to take control of the fight by taking Aubin-Mercier down. Aubin-Mercier is not as strong on the ground as Ray, at least on paper.
Aubin-Mercier hasn’t registered a submission win in six years, since defeating Drew Dober in 2016. Ray just registered his most recent sub in June, tapping Anthony Pettis to the Twister. It’s rare to see Ray get the finish, however, as his last win by finish prior to that came in 2015 against Leonardo Mafra.
This may not be the most exciting of fights if you’re only looking for finishes, but if you enjoy solid grappling and high-volume striking, this may be the fight for you.
PREDICTION: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins via decision